| 1. |
- Hegre, Håvard, 1964-, et al.
(author)
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ViEWS(2020) : Revising and evaluating the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System
- 2021
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In: Journal of Peace Research. - : Sage Publications. - 0022-3433 .- 1460-3578. ; 58:3, s. 599-611
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This article presents an update to the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System. This update introduces (1) a new infrastructure for training, evaluating, and weighting models that allows us to more optimally combine constituent models into ensembles, and (2) a number of new forecasting models that contribute to improve overall performance, in particular with respect to effectively classifying high- and low-risk cases. Our improved evaluation procedures allow us to develop models that specialize in either the immediate or the more distant future. We also present a formal, 'retrospective' evaluation of how well ViEWS has done since we started publishing our forecasts from July 2018 up to December 2019. Our metrics show that ViEWS is performing well when compared to previous out-of-sample forecasts for the 2015-17 period. Finally, we present our new forecasts for the January 2020-December 2022 period. We continue to predict a near-constant situation of conflict in Nigeria, Somalia, and DRC, but see some signs of decreased risk in Cameroon and Mozambique.
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| 2. |
- Theisen, Ole Magnus, et al.
(author)
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Understanding the potential linkages between climate change and conflict in the Arab region : E/ESCWA/CL6.GCP/2021/TP.9
- 2021
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Reports (pop. science, debate, etc.)abstract
- The Arab States are affected by a wide range of environmental challenges exacerbated by current and projected impacts of climate change, including, among others, depletion of scarce natural resources such as water and arable land, increasing pollution levels, and the growing number and magnitude of extreme weather events. At the same time, the Arab region has been a hotspot for conflicts during the last decades. This highlights the need among policymakers and practitioners of conflict prevention and peacebuilding to better understand how climate change might contribute to current or future dynamics of conflict. This report provides a conceptual framework for analysts and policymakers in the region that shows how the loss of livelihood, economic contraction, resource competition, migration, poor governance, and other social processes (mechanisms) spurred by climate risk are more likely to increase conflict risk when occurring in certain contexts.
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