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- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
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Whom to treat? The contribution of vertebral X-rays to risk-based algorithms for fracture prediction. Results from the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study
- 2006
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Ingår i: Osteoporosis International. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1433-2965 .- 0937-941X. ; 17:9, s. 1369-1381
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction: Vertebral fracture is a strong risk factor for future spine and hip fractures; yet recent data suggest that only 5-20% of subjects with a spine fracture are identified in primary care. We aimed to develop easily applicable algorithms predicting a high risk of future spine fracture in men and women over 50 years of age. Methods: Data was analysed from 5,561 men and women aged 50+ years participating in the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study (EPOS). Lateral thoracic and lumbar spine radiographs were taken at baseline and at an average of 3.8 years later. These were evaluated by an experienced radiologist. The risk of a new (incident) vertebral fracture was modelled as a function of age, number of prevalent vertebral fractures, height loss, sex and other fracture history reported by the subject, including limb fractures occurring between X-rays. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to compare the predictive ability of models. Results: In a negative binomial regression model without baseline X-ray data, the risk of incident vertebral fracture significantly increased with age [RR 1.74, 95% CI (1.44, 2.10) per decade], height loss [1.08 (1.04, 1.12) per cm decrease], female sex [1.48 (1.05, 2.09)], and recalled fracture history; [1.65 (1.15, 2.38) to 3.03 (1.66, 5.54)] according to fracture site. Baseline radiological assessment of prevalent vertebral fracture significantly improved the areas subtended by ROC curves from 0.71 (0.67, 0.74) to 0.74 (0.70, 0.77) P=0.013 for predicting 1+ incident fracture; and from 0.74 (0.67, 0.81) to 0.83 (0.76, 0.90) P=0.001 for 2+ incident fractures. Age, sex and height loss remained independently predictive. The relative risk of a new vertebral fracture increased with the number of prevalent vertebral fractures present from 3.08 (2.10, 4.52) for 1 fracture to 9.36 (5.72, 15.32) for 3+. At a specificity of 90%, the model including X-ray data improved the sensitivity for predicting 2+ and 1+ incident fractures by 6 and 4 fold respectively compared with random guessing. At 75% specificity the improvements were 3.2 and 2.4 fold respectively. With the modelling restricted to the subjects who had BMD measurements (n=2,409), the AUC for predicting 1+ vs. 0 incident vertebral fractures improved from 0.72 (0.66, 0.79) to 0.76 (0.71, 0.82) upon adding femoral neck BMD (P=0.010). Conclusion: We conclude that for those with existing vertebral fractures, an accurately read spine X-ray will form a central component in future algorithms for targeting treatment, especially to the most vulnerable. The sensitivity of this approach to identifying vertebral fracture cases requiring anti-osteoporosis treatment, even when X-rays are ordered highly selectively, exceeds by a large margin the current standard of practice as recorded anywhere in the world.
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| 3. |
- Macfarlane, G. J., et al.
(författare)
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Investigating the determinants of international differences in the prevalence of chronic widespread pain: evidence from the European Male Ageing Study
- 2009
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Ingår i: Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases. - : BMJ. - 1468-2060 .- 0003-4967. ; 68:5, s. 690-695
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives: To determine whether among middle-aged and elderly men there is evidence of international differences in the prevalence of chronic widespread pain (CWP) and whether any such differences could be explained by psychological, psychosocial factors or differences in physical health status. Methods: The European Male Ageing Study (EMAS) sampled from population registers in cities ( centres) of eight European countries. Each centre recruited an age-stratified sample of men aged 40-79 years. Information on pain was collected by questionnaire and subjects were classified according to whether they satisfied the American College of Rheumatology definition of CWP. Information was collected on social status, mental health, recent life events and co-morbidities. Results: Across all centres 3963 subjects completed a study questionnaire, with participation rates ranging from 24% in Hungary to 72% in Estonia. There were significant differences in prevalence: between 5% and 7% in centres in Italy, England, Belgium and Sweden, 9-15% in centres in Spain, Poland and Hungary and 15% in Estonia. There were strong relationships between poor mental health, adverse recent life events, co-morbidities and CWP. Adjustment for these factors explained between half and all of the excess risk in the eastern European centres: the excess risk in Poland was explained ( odds ratio ( OR) 1.1, 95% CI 0.9 to 1.2) but there remained excess risk in Hungary ( OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.4 to 1.8) and Estonia ( OR 2.6, 95% CI 2.2 to 2.9). Conclusions: This study is the first directly to compare the occurrence of CWP internationally. There is an excess prevalence in countries of eastern Europe and this excess is associated with adverse psychosocial factors as well as poorer psychological and physical health.
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