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| 2. |
- Fenstermacher, M.E., et al.
(författare)
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DIII-D research advancing the physics basis for optimizing the tokamak approach to fusion energy
- 2022
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Ingår i: Nuclear Fusion. - : IOP Publishing. - 0029-5515 .- 1741-4326. ; 62:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- DIII-D physics research addresses critical challenges for the operation of ITER and the next generation of fusion energy devices. This is done through a focus on innovations to provide solutions for high performance long pulse operation, coupled with fundamental plasma physics understanding and model validation, to drive scenario development by integrating high performance core and boundary plasmas. Substantial increases in off-axis current drive efficiency from an innovative top launch system for EC power, and in pressure broadening for Alfven eigenmode control from a co-/counter-I p steerable off-axis neutral beam, all improve the prospects for optimization of future long pulse/steady state high performance tokamak operation. Fundamental studies into the modes that drive the evolution of the pedestal pressure profile and electron vs ion heat flux validate predictive models of pedestal recovery after ELMs. Understanding the physics mechanisms of ELM control and density pumpout by 3D magnetic perturbation fields leads to confident predictions for ITER and future devices. Validated modeling of high-Z shattered pellet injection for disruption mitigation, runaway electron dissipation, and techniques for disruption prediction and avoidance including machine learning, give confidence in handling disruptivity for future devices. For the non-nuclear phase of ITER, two actuators are identified to lower the L-H threshold power in hydrogen plasmas. With this physics understanding and suite of capabilities, a high poloidal beta optimized-core scenario with an internal transport barrier that projects nearly to Q = 10 in ITER at ∼8 MA was coupled to a detached divertor, and a near super H-mode optimized-pedestal scenario with co-I p beam injection was coupled to a radiative divertor. The hybrid core scenario was achieved directly, without the need for anomalous current diffusion, using off-axis current drive actuators. Also, a controller to assess proximity to stability limits and regulate β N in the ITER baseline scenario, based on plasma response to probing 3D fields, was demonstrated. Finally, innovative tokamak operation using a negative triangularity shape showed many attractive features for future pilot plant operation.
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| 3. |
- Stroth, U., et al.
(författare)
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Progress from ASDEX Upgrade experiments in preparing the physics basis of ITER operation and DEMO scenario development
- 2022
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Ingår i: Nuclear Fusion. - : IOP Publishing. - 1741-4326 .- 0029-5515. ; 62:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An overview of recent results obtained at the tokamak ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) is given. A work flow for predictive profile modelling of AUG discharges was established which is able to reproduce experimental H-mode plasma profiles based on engineering parameters only. In the plasma center, theoretical predictions on plasma current redistribution by a dynamo effect were confirmed experimentally. For core transport, the stabilizing effect of fast ion distributions on turbulent transport is shown to be important to explain the core isotope effect and improves the description of hollow low-Z impurity profiles. The L-H power threshold of hydrogen plasmas is not affected by small helium admixtures and it increases continuously from the deuterium to the hydrogen level when the hydrogen concentration is raised from 0 to 100%. One focus of recent campaigns was the search for a fusion relevant integrated plasma scenario without large edge localised modes (ELMs). Results from six different ELM-free confinement regimes are compared with respect to reactor relevance: ELM suppression by magnetic perturbation coils could be attributed to toroidally asymmetric turbulent fluctuations in the vicinity of the separatrix. Stable improved confinement mode plasma phases with a detached inner divertor were obtained using a feedback control of the plasma β. The enhanced D α H-mode regime was extended to higher heating power by feedback controlled radiative cooling with argon. The quasi-coherent exhaust regime was developed into an integrated scenario at high heating power and energy confinement, with a detached divertor and without large ELMs. Small ELMs close to the separatrix lead to peeling-ballooning stability and quasi continuous power exhaust. Helium beam density fluctuation measurements confirm that transport close to the separatrix is important to achieve the different ELM-free regimes. Based on separatrix plasma parameters and interchange-drift-Alfvén turbulence, an analytic model was derived that reproduces the experimentally found important operational boundaries of the density limit and between L- and H-mode confinement. Feedback control for the X-point radiator (XPR) position was established as an important element for divertor detachment control. Stable and detached ELM-free phases with H-mode confinement quality were obtained when the XPR was moved 10 cm above the X-point. Investigations of the plasma in the future flexible snow-flake divertor of AUG by means of first SOLPS-ITER simulations with drifts activated predict beneficial detachment properties and the activation of an additional strike point by the drifts.
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| 4. |
- Jonsson, Lina, 1982, et al.
(författare)
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Characterisation of age and polarity at onset in bipolar disorder
- 2021
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Ingår i: British Journal of Psychiatry. - : Royal College of Psychiatrists. - 0007-1250 .- 1472-1465. ; 219:6, s. 659-669
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Studying phenotypic and genetic characteristics of age at onset (AAO) and polarity at onset (PAO) in bipolar disorder can provide new insights into disease pathology and facilitate the development of screening tools. Aims To examine the genetic architecture of AAO and PAO and their association with bipolar disorder disease characteristics. Method Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) and polygenic score (PGS) analyses of AAO (n = 12 977) and PAO (n = 6773) were conducted in patients with bipolar disorder from 34 cohorts and a replication sample (n = 2237). The association of onset with disease characteristics was investigated in two of these cohorts. Results Earlier AAO was associated with a higher probability of psychotic symptoms, suicidality, lower educational attainment, not living together and fewer episodes. Depressive onset correlated with suicidality and manic onset correlated with delusions and manic episodes. Systematic differences in AAO between cohorts and continents of origin were observed. This was also reflected in single-nucleotide variant-based heritability estimates, with higher heritabilities for stricter onset definitions. Increased PGS for autism spectrum disorder (beta = -0.34 years, s.e. = 0.08), major depression (beta = -0.34 years, s.e. = 0.08), schizophrenia (beta = -0.39 years, s.e. = 0.08), and educational attainment (beta = -0.31 years, s.e. = 0.08) were associated with an earlier AAO. The AAO GWAS identified one significant locus, but this finding did not replicate. Neither GWAS nor PGS analyses yielded significant associations with PAO. Conclusions AAO and PAO are associated with indicators of bipolar disorder severity. Individuals with an earlier onset show an increased polygenic liability for a broad spectrum of psychiatric traits. Systematic differences in AAO across cohorts, continents and phenotype definitions introduce significant heterogeneity, affecting analyses.
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| 5. |
- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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| 6. |
- Kattge, Jens, et al.
(författare)
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TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access
- 2020
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 26:1, s. 119-188
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives.
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| 7. |
- Thomas, H. J. D., et al.
(författare)
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Global plant trait relationships extend to the climatic extremes of the tundra biome
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 2041-1723. ; 11:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The majority of variation in six traits critical to the growth, survival and reproduction of plant species is thought to be organised along just two dimensions, corresponding to strategies of plant size and resource acquisition. However, it is unknown whether global plant trait relationships extend to climatic extremes, and if these interspecific relationships are confounded by trait variation within species. We test whether trait relationships extend to the cold extremes of life on Earth using the largest database of tundra plant traits yet compiled. We show that tundra plants demonstrate remarkably similar resource economic traits, but not size traits, compared to global distributions, and exhibit the same two dimensions of trait variation. Three quarters of trait variation occurs among species, mirroring global estimates of interspecific trait variation. Plant trait relationships are thus generalizable to the edge of global trait-space, informing prediction of plant community change in a warming world.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Burn, E., et al.
(författare)
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Deep phenotyping of 34,128 adult patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in an international network study
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 11:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Comorbid conditions appear to be common among individuals hospitalised with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) but estimates of prevalence vary and little is known about the prior medication use of patients. Here, we describe the characteristics of adults hospitalised with COVID-19 and compare them with influenza patients. We include 34,128 (US: 8362, South Korea: 7341, Spain: 18,425) COVID-19 patients, summarising between 4811 and 11,643 unique aggregate characteristics. COVID-19 patients have been majority male in the US and Spain, but predominantly female in South Korea. Age profiles vary across data sources. Compared to 84,585 individuals hospitalised with influenza in 2014-19, COVID-19 patients have more typically been male, younger, and with fewer comorbidities and lower medication use. While protecting groups vulnerable to influenza is likely a useful starting point in the response to COVID-19, strategies will likely need to be broadened to reflect the particular characteristics of individuals being hospitalised with COVID-19. Detailed knowledge of the characteristics of COVID-19 patients helps with public health planning. Here, the authors use routinely-collected data from seven databases in three countries to describe the characteristics of >30,000 patients admitted with COVID-19 and compare them with those admitted for influenza in previous years.
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