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- Ebersole, Charles R., et al.
(author)
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Many Labs 5: Testing Pre-Data-Collection Peer Review as an Intervention to Increase Replicability
- 2020
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In: Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science. - : Sage. - 2515-2467 .- 2515-2459. ; 3:3, s. 309-331
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Replication studies in psychological science sometimes fail to reproduce prior findings. If these studies use methods that are unfaithful to the original study or ineffective in eliciting the phenomenon of interest, then a failure to replicate may be a failure of the protocol rather than a challenge to the original finding. Formal pre-data-collection peer review by experts may address shortcomings and increase replicability rates. We selected 10 replication studies from the Reproducibility Project: Psychology (RP:P; Open Science Collaboration, 2015) for which the original authors had expressed concerns about the replication designs before data collection; only one of these studies had yielded a statistically significant effect (p < .05). Commenters suggested that lack of adherence to expert review and low-powered tests were the reasons that most of these RP:P studies failed to replicate the original effects. We revised the replication protocols and received formal peer review prior to conducting new replication studies. We administered the RP:P and revised protocols in multiple laboratories (median number of laboratories per original study = 6.5, range = 3-9; median total sample = 1,279.5, range = 276-3,512) for high-powered tests of each original finding with both protocols. Overall, following the preregistered analysis plan, we found that the revised protocols produced effect sizes similar to those of the RP:P protocols (Delta r = .002 or .014, depending on analytic approach). The median effect size for the revised protocols (r = .05) was similar to that of the RP:P protocols (r = .04) and the original RP:P replications (r = .11), and smaller than that of the original studies (r = .37). Analysis of the cumulative evidence across the original studies and the corresponding three replication attempts provided very precise estimates of the 10 tested effects and indicated that their effect sizes (median r = .07, range = .00-.15) were 78% smaller, on average, than the original effect sizes (median r = .37, range = .19-.50).
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- Nielsen, L. D., et al.
(author)
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Mass determinations of the three mini-Neptunes transiting TOI-125
- 2020
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In: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 492:4, s. 5399-5412
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite, TESS, is currently carrying out an all-sky search for small planets transiting bright stars. In the first year of the TESS survey, a steady progress was made in achieving the mission's primary science goal of establishing bulk densities for 50 planets smaller than Neptune. During that year, the TESS's observations were focused on the southern ecliptic hemisphere, resulting in the discovery of three mini-Neptunes orbiting the star T01-125, a V = 11,0 KO dwarf. We present intensive HARPS radial velocity observations, yielding precise mass measurements for TO1-125b, TOI-125c, and TOI-125d. TOI-125b has an orbital period of 4,65 d, a radius of 2,726 + 0,075 RE, a mass of 9,50 0,88 ME, and is near the 2:1 mean motion resonance with TOI-125c at 9.15 d. TOI-125c has a similar radius of 2,759 0.10 RE and a mass of 6,63 + 0,99 ME, being the puffiest of the three planets. T01-125d has an orbital period of 19,98 d and a radius of 2.93 + 0,17 RE and mass 13,6 1,2 ME, For T01-125b and d, we find unusual high eccentricities of 0.19 0.04 and 0.17+(c):(!,(, respectively. Our analysis also provides upper mass limits for the two low-SNR planet candidates in the system; for T01-125.04 (Rp = 1.36 RE, P = 0.53 d), we find a 2a upper mass limit of 1.6 ME, whereas T01-125.05 (RP = 4.2-'2E44 RE, P = 13.28 d) is unlikely a viable planet candidate with an upper mass limit of 2.7 ME. We discuss the internal structure of the three confirmed planets, as well as dynamical stability and system architecture for this intriguing exoplanet system.
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- De Marco, O., et al.
(author)
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The messy death of a multiple star system and the resulting planetary nebula as observed by JWST
- 2022
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In: Nature Astronomy. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-3366. ; 6:12, s. 1421-1432
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Planetary nebulae—the ejected envelopes of red giant stars—provide us with a history of the last, mass-losing phases of 90% of stars initially more massive than the Sun. Here we analyse images of the planetary nebula NGC 3132 from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Early Release Observations. A structured, extended hydrogen halo surrounding an ionized central bubble is imprinted with spiral structures, probably shaped by a low-mass companion orbiting the central star at about 40–60 au. The images also reveal a mid-infrared excess at the central star, interpreted as a dusty disk, which is indicative of an interaction with another closer companion. Including the previously known A-type visual companion, the progenitor of the NGC 3132 planetary nebula must have been at least a stellar quartet. The JWST images allow us to generate a model of the illumination, ionization and hydrodynamics of the molecular halo, demonstrating the power of JWST to investigate complex stellar outflows. Furthermore, new measurements of the A-type visual companion allow us to derive the value for the mass of the progenitor of a central star with excellent precision: 2.86 ± 0.06 M⊙. These results serve as pathfinders for future JWST observations of planetary nebulae, providing unique insight into fundamental astrophysical processes including colliding winds and binary star interactions, with implications for supernovae and gravitational-wave systems.
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- Dahal, Prabin, et al.
(author)
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Temporal distribution of Plasmodium falciparum recrudescence following artemisinin-based combination therapy : an individual participant data meta-analysis
- 2022
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In: Malaria Journal. - : Springer Nature. - 1475-2875. ; 21
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: The duration of trial follow-up affects the ability to detect recrudescent infections following anti-malarial treatment. The aim of this study was to explore the proportions of recrudescent parasitaemia as ascribed by genotyping captured at various follow-up time-points in treatment efficacy trials for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria.Methods: Individual patient data from 83 anti-malarial efficacy studies collated in the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN) repository with at least 28 days follow-up were available. The temporal and cumulative distributions of recrudescence were characterized using a Cox regression model with shared frailty on study-sites. Fractional polynomials were used to capture non-linear instantaneous hazard. The area under the density curve (AUC) of the constructed distribution was used to estimate the optimal follow-up period for capturing a P. falciparum malaria recrudescence. Simulation studies were conducted based on the constructed distributions to quantify the absolute overestimation in efficacy due to sub-optimal follow-up.Results: Overall, 3703 recurrent infections were detected in 60 studies conducted in Africa (15,512 children aged < 5 years) and 23 studies conducted in Asia and South America (5272 patients of all ages). Using molecular genotyping, 519 (14.0%) recurrences were ascribed as recrudescent infections. A 28 day artemether-lumefantrine (AL) efficacy trial would not have detected 58% [95% confidence interval (CI) 47-74%] of recrudescences in African children and 32% [95% CI 15-45%] in patients of all ages in Asia/South America. The corresponding estimate following a 42 day dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) efficacy trial in Africa was 47% [95% CI 19-90%] in children under 5 years old treated with > 48 mg/kg total piperaquine (PIP) dose and 9% [95% CI 0-22%] in those treated with <= 48 mg/kg PIP dose. In absolute terms, the simulation study found that trials limited to 28 days follow-up following AL underestimated the risk of recrudescence by a median of 2.8 percentage points compared to day 63 estimates and those limited to 42 days following DP underestimated the risk of recrudescence by a median of 2.0 percentage points compared to day 42 estimates. The analysis was limited by few clinical trials following patients for longer than 42 days (9 out of 83 trials) and the imprecision of PCR genotyping which overcalls recrudescence in areas of higher transmission biasing the later distribution.Conclusions: Restricting follow-up of clinical efficacy trials to day 28 for AL and day 42 for DP will miss a proportion of late recrudescent treatment failures but will have a modest impact in derived efficacy. The results highlight that as genotyping methods improve consideration should be given for trials with longer duration of follow-up to detect early indications of emerging drug resistance.
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- Abraham, Roshan Mammen, et al.
(author)
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Tau neutrinos in the next decade : from GeV to EeV
- 2022
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In: Journal of Physics G. - : Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP). - 0954-3899 .- 1361-6471. ; 49:11
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Tau neutrinos are the least studied particle in the standard model. This whitepaper discusses the current and expected upcoming status of tau neutrino physics with attention to the broad experimental and theoretical landscape spanning long-baseline, beam-dump, collider, and astrophysical experiments. This whitepaper was prepared as a part of the NuTau2021 Workshop.
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- Carneiro, Ana P. B., et al.
(author)
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A framework for mapping the distribution of seabirds by integrating tracking, demography and phenology
- 2020
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In: Journal of Applied Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0021-8901 .- 1365-2664. ; 57:3, s. 514-525
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The identification of geographic areas where the densities of animals are highest across their annual cycles is a crucial step in conservation planning. In marine environments, however, it can be particularly difficult to map the distribution of species, and the methods used are usually biased towards adults, neglecting the distribution of other life-history stages even though they can represent a substantial proportion of the total population. Here we develop a methodological framework for estimating population-level density distributions of seabirds, integrating tracking data across the main life-history stages (adult breeders and non-breeders, juveniles and immatures). We incorporate demographic information (adult and juvenile/immature survival, breeding frequency and success, age at first breeding) and phenological data (average timing of breeding and migration) to weight distribution maps according to the proportion of the population represented by each life-history stage. We demonstrate the utility of this framework by applying it to 22 species of albatrosses and petrels that are of conservation concern due to interactions with fisheries. Because juveniles, immatures and non-breeding adults account for 47%-81% of all individuals of the populations analysed, ignoring the distributions of birds in these stages leads to biased estimates of overlap with threats, and may misdirect management and conservation efforts. Population-level distribution maps using only adult distributions underestimated exposure to longline fishing effort by 18%-42%, compared with overlap scores based on data from all life-history stages. Synthesis and applications. Our framework synthesizes and improves on previous approaches to estimate seabird densities at sea, is applicable for data-poor situations, and provides a standard and repeatable method that can be easily updated as new tracking and demographic data become available. We provide scripts in the R language and a Shiny app to facilitate future applications of our approach. We recommend that where sufficient tracking data are available, this framework be used to assess overlap of seabirds with at-sea threats such as overharvesting, fisheries bycatch, shipping, offshore industry and pollutants. Based on such an analysis, conservation interventions could be directed towards areas where they have the greatest impact on populations.
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- Furukawa, Toshi A., et al.
(author)
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Dismantling, optimising, and personalising internet cognitive behavioural therapy for depression : a systematic review and component network meta-analysis using individual data
- 2021
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In: Lancet psychiatry. - London, United Kingdom : Elsevier. - 2215-0374 .- 2215-0366. ; 8:6, s. 500-511
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Findings We identified 76 RCTs, including 48 trials contributing individual participant data (11 704 participants) and 28 trials with aggregate data (6474 participants). The participants' weighted mean age was 42.0 years and 12 406 (71%) of 17 521 reported were women. There was suggestive evidence that behavioural activation might be beneficial (iMD -1.83 [95% credible interval (CrI) -2.90 to -0.80]) and that relaxation might be harmful (1.20 [95% CrI 0.17 to 2.27]). Baseline severity emerged as the strongest prognostic factor for endpoint depression. Combining human and automated encouragement reduced dropouts from treatment (incremental odds ratio, 0.32 [95% CrI 0.13 to 0.93]). The risk of bias was low for the randomisation process, missing outcome data, or selection of reported results in most of the included studies, uncertain for deviation from intended interventions, and high for measurement of outcomes. There was moderate to high heterogeneity among the studies and their components. 511
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- Harris, WS, et al.
(author)
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Blood n-3 fatty acid levels and total and cause-specific mortality from 17 prospective studies
- 2021
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In: Nature communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 12:1, s. 2329-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The health effects of omega-3 fatty acids have been controversial. Here we report the results of a de novo pooled analysis conducted with data from 17 prospective cohort studies examining the associations between blood omega-3 fatty acid levels and risk for all-cause mortality. Over a median of 16 years of follow-up, 15,720 deaths occurred among 42,466 individuals. We found that, after multivariable adjustment for relevant risk factors, risk for death from all causes was significantly lower (by 15–18%, at least p < 0.003) in the highest vs the lowest quintile for circulating long chain (20–22 carbon) omega-3 fatty acids (eicosapentaenoic, docosapentaenoic, and docosahexaenoic acids). Similar relationships were seen for death from cardiovascular disease, cancer and other causes. No associations were seen with the 18-carbon omega-3, alpha-linolenic acid. These findings suggest that higher circulating levels of marine n-3 PUFA are associated with a lower risk of premature death.
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