| 1. |
- Reddington, C. L., et al.
(författare)
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THE GLOBAL AEROSOL SYNTHESIS AND SCIENCE PROJECT (GASSP) : Measurements and Modeling to Reduce Uncertainty
- 2017
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 98:9, s. 1857-1877
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The largest uncertainty in the historical radiative forcing of climate is caused by changes in aerosol particles due to anthropogenic activity. Sophisticated aerosol microphysics processes have been included in many climate models in an effort to reduce the uncertainty. However, the models are very challenging to evaluate and constrain because they require extensive in situ measurements of the particle size distribution, number concentration, and chemical composition that are not available from global satellite observations. The Global Aerosol Synthesis and Science Project (GASSP) aims to improve the robustness of global aerosol models by combining new methodologies for quantifying model uncertainty, to create an extensive global dataset of aerosol in situ microphysical and chemical measurements, and to develop new ways to assess the uncertainty associated with comparing sparse point measurements with low-resolution models. GASSP has assembled over 45,000 hours of measurements from ships and aircraft as well as data from over 350 ground stations. The measurements have been harmonized into a standardized format that is easily used by modelers and nonspecialist users. Available measurements are extensive, but they are biased to polluted regions of the Northern Hemisphere, leaving large pristine regions and many continental areas poorly sampled. The aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty can be reduced using a rigorous model-data synthesis approach. Nevertheless, our research highlights significant remaining challenges because of the difficulty of constraining many interwoven model uncertainties simultaneously. Although the physical realism of global aerosol models still needs to be improved, the uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing will be reduced most effectively by systematically and rigorously constraining the models using extensive syntheses of measurements.
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| 2. |
- Malavelle, Florent F., et al.
(författare)
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Strong constraints on aerosol-cloud interactions from volcanic eruptions
- 2017
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 546:7659, s. 485-491
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aerosols have a potentially large effect on climate, particularly through their interactions with clouds, but the magnitude of this effect is highly uncertain. Large volcanic eruptions produce sulfur dioxide, which in turn produces aerosols; these eruptions thus represent a natural experiment through which to quantify aerosol-cloud interactions. Here we show that the massive 2014-2015 fissure eruption in Holuhraun, Iceland, reduced the size of liquid cloud droplets-consistent with expectations-but had no discernible effect on other cloud properties. The reduction in droplet size led to cloud brightening and global-mean radiative forcing of around -0.2 watts per square metre for September to October 2014. Changes in cloud amount or cloud liquid water path, however, were undetectable, indicating that these indirect effects, and cloud systems in general, are well buffered against aerosol changes. This result will reduce uncertainties in future climate projections, because we are now able to reject results from climate models with an excessive liquid-water-path response.
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| 3. |
- Fanourgakis, George S., et al.
(författare)
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Evaluation of global simulations of aerosol particle and cloud condensation nuclei number, with implications for cloud droplet formation
- 2019
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 19:13, s. 8591-8617
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A total of 16 global chemistry transport models and general circulation models have participated in this study; 14 models have been evaluated with regard to their ability to reproduce the near-surface observed number concentration of aerosol particles and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), as well as derived cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Model results for the period 2011-2015 are compared with aerosol measurements (aerosol particle number, CCN and aerosol particle composition in the submicron fraction) from nine surface stations located in Europe and Japan. The evaluation focuses on the ability of models to simulate the average across time state in diverse environments and on the seasonal and short-term variability in the aerosol properties. There is no single model that systematically performs best across all environments represented by the observations. Models tend to underestimate the observed aerosol particle and CCN number concentrations, with average normalized mean bias (NMB) of all models and for all stations, where data are available, of -24% and -35% for particles with dry diameters >50 and >120nm, as well as -36% and -34% for CCN at supersaturations of 0.2% and 1.0%, respectively. However, they seem to behave differently for particles activating at very low supersaturations (<0.1%) than at higher ones. A total of 15 models have been used to produce ensemble annual median distributions of relevant parameters. The model diversity (defined as the ratio of standard deviation to mean) is up to about 3 for simulated N3 (number concentration of particles with dry diameters larger than 3nm) and up to about 1 for simulated CCN in the extra-polar regions. A global mean reduction of a factor of about 2 is found in the model diversity for CCN at a supersaturation of 0.2% (CCN0.2) compared to that for N3, maximizing over regions where new particle formation is important. An additional model has been used to investigate potential causes of model diversity in CCN and bias compared to the observations by performing a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) accounting for uncertainties in 26 aerosol-related model input parameters. This PPE suggests that biogenic secondary organic aerosol formation and the hygroscopic properties of the organic material are likely to be the major sources of CCN uncertainty in summer, with dry deposition and cloud processing being dominant in winter. Models capture the relative amplitude of the seasonal variability of the aerosol particle number concentration for all studied particle sizes with available observations (dry diameters larger than 50, 80 and 120nm). The short-term persistence time (on the order of a few days) of CCN concentrations, which is a measure of aerosol dynamic behavior in the models, is underestimated on average by the models by 40% during winter and 20% in summer. In contrast to the large spread in simulated aerosol particle and CCN number concentrations, the CDNC derived from simulated CCN spectra is less diverse and in better agreement with CDNC estimates consistently derived from the observations (average NMB -13% and -22% for updraft velocities 0.3 and 0.6ms-1, respectively). In addition, simulated CDNC is in slightly better agreement with observationally derived values at lower than at higher updraft velocities (index of agreement 0.64 vs. 0.65). The reduced spread of CDNC compared to that of CCN is attributed to the sublinear response of CDNC to aerosol particle number variations and the negative correlation between the sensitivities of CDNC to aerosol particle number concentration (Nd=Na) and to updraft velocity (Nd=w). Overall, we find that while CCN is controlled by both aerosol particle number and composition, CDNC is sensitive to CCN at low and moderate CCN concentrations and to the updraft velocity when CCN levels are high. Discrepancies are found in sensitivities Nd=Na and Nd=w; models may be predisposed to be too "aerosol sensitive" or "aerosol insensitive" in aerosol-cloud-climate interaction studies, even if they may capture average droplet numbers well. This is a subtle but profound finding that only the sensitivities can clearly reveal and may explain intermodel biases on the aerosol indirect effect.
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| 4. |
- Schutgens, N. A. J., et al.
(författare)
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The importance of temporal collocation for the evaluation of aerosol models with observations
- 2016
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 16:2, s. 1065-1079
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- It is often implicitly assumed that over suitably long periods the mean of observations and models should be comparable, even if they have different temporal sampling. We assess the errors incurred due to ignoring temporal sampling and show that they are of similar magnitude as (but smaller than) actual model errors (20-60 %). Using temporal sampling from remote-sensing data sets, the satellite imager MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and the ground-based sun photometer network AERONET (AErosol Robotic NETwork), and three different global aerosol models, we compare annual and monthly averages of full model data to sampled model data. Our results show that sampling errors as large as 100% in AOT (aerosol optical thickness), 0.4 in AE (angstrom ngstrom Exponent) and 0.05 in SSA (single scattering albedo) are possible. Even in daily averages, sampling errors can be significant. Moreover these sampling errors are often correlated over long distances giving rise to artificial contrasts between pristine and polluted events and regions. Additionally, we provide evidence that suggests that models will underestimate these errors. To prevent sampling errors, model data should be temporally collocated to the observations before any analysis is made. We also discuss how this work has consequences for in situ measurements (e.g. aircraft campaigns or surface measurements) in model evaluation. Although this study is framed in the context of model evaluation, it has a clear and direct relevance to climatologies derived from observational data sets.
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| 5. |
- Speakman, John R, et al.
(författare)
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Oxidative stress and life histories: unresolved issues and current needs.
- 2015
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Ingår i: Ecology and Evolution. - : Wiley. - 2045-7758. ; 5:24, s. 745-757
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Life-history theory concerns the trade-offs that mold the patterns of investment by animals between reproduction, growth, and survival. It is widely recognized that physiology plays a role in the mediation of life-history trade-offs, but the details remain obscure. As life-history theory concerns aspects of investment in the soma that influence survival, understanding the physiological basis of life histories is related, but not identical, to understanding the process of aging. One idea from the field of aging that has gained considerable traction in the area of life histories is that life-history trade-offs may be mediated by free radical production and oxidative stress. We outline here developments in this field and summarize a number of important unresolved issues that may guide future research efforts. The issues are as follows. First, different tissues and macromolecular targets of oxidative stress respond differently during reproduction. The functional significance of these changes, however, remains uncertain. Consequently there is a need for studies that link oxidative stress measurements to functional outcomes, such as survival. Second, measurements of oxidative stress are often highly invasive or terminal. Terminal studies of oxidative stress in wild animals, where detailed life-history information is available, cannot generally be performed without compromising the aims of the studies that generated the life-history data. There is a need therefore for novel non-invasive measurements of multi-tissue oxidative stress. Third, laboratory studies provide unrivaled opportunities for experimental manipulation but may fail to expose the physiology underpinning life-history effects, because of the benign laboratory environment. Fourth, the idea that oxidative stress might underlie life-history trade-offs does not make specific enough predictions that are amenable to testing. Moreover, there is a paucity of good alternative theoretical models on which contrasting predictions might be based. Fifth, there is an enormous diversity of life-history variation to test the idea that oxidative stress may be a key mediator. So far we have only scratched the surface. Broadening the scope may reveal new strategies linked to the processes of oxidative damage and repair. Finally, understanding the trade-offs in life histories and understanding the process of aging are related but not identical questions. Scientists inhabiting these two spheres of activity seldom collide, yet they have much to learn from each other.
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