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| 2. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 3. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 4. |
- Younis, Adel, et al.
(författare)
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A study on the bond behavior of different FRCM systems
- 2018
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Ingår i: International Conference on Concrete Repair, Rehabilitation and Retrofitting (ICCRRR 2018). - : EDP Sciences.
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Fabric-reinforced cementitous matrix (FRCM) composites are usually applied on the concrete surface for the purpose of strengthening reinforced concrete structures. However, the efficiency of FRCM strengthening is notably affected by the bond between the FRCM system and concrete substrate. In view of that, the current paper presents the results of a preliminary experimental study carried out to investigate the bond characteristics between FRCM composites and concrete. Six number of specimens, each consisted of a 150-mm concrete cube with a double-shear connection to an FRCM system, were subjected to direct-shear loading test. The parameters investigated include (a) FRCM material (carbon, polyparaphenylene benzobisoxazole (PBO), and glass); and (b) Bond length (75 mm or 100 mm). The FRCM systems typically included a single layer of fabric with the associated mortar, and the bond width was uniformly taken as 100 mm. The test results revealed that the bond capacity is enhanced with an increase in the FRCM bonded length. The PBO-FRCM showed the highest bond capacity between FRCM composite and concrete substrate among the three systems. The modes of failure observed in carbon-, PBO-, and glass-FRCM bond tests are fabric delamination, FRCM mortar/concrete debonding, and fabric rapture, respectively. The PBOand glass-FRCM bond tests thus exhibited a more brittle behavior at failure than that of the carbon-FRCM counterpart.
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| 5. |
- Younis, Adel, et al.
(författare)
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Bond characteristics of different FRCM systems
- 2018
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Ingår i: Construction and Building Materials. - : Elsevier. - 0950-0618 .- 1879-0526. ; 175, s. 610-620
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Fabric-reinforced cementitious matrix (FRCM) composites are usually applied on the concrete surface for the purpose of strengthening reinforced concrete structures. The efficiency of FRCM as a strengthening material is notably affected by the bond between the FRCM and concrete. In view of that, this paper reports on the results of an experimental study to investigate the bond characteristics between FRCM and concrete. Eighteen specimens with different lengths were prepared and subjected to double-shear test. The parameters investigated included (a) fabric type (carbon, polyparaphenylene benzobisoxazole (PBO), and glass); (b) bond length (75, 100, 125, 150, and 200 mm); and (c) number of fabric plies (single or double). The modes of failure observed in carbon-, PBO-, and glass-FRCM bond tests are fabric/matrix debonding, FRCM mortar/concrete debonding, and fabric rapture, respectively. The PBO- and glass-FRCM bond failure was more brittle than that of the carbon-FRCM counterpart. Among the three systems, the PBO-FRCM showed the highest FRCM/concrete bond. The bond capacity and the mode of failure were prone to the number of fabric plies and indeed bond length. Theoretically-predicted values for the FRCM bond capacity were obtained based on a proposed analytical model, and showed a reasonable agreement with the experimental results.
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| 6. |
- Younis, Adel, et al.
(författare)
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Characterization and application of FRCM as a strengthening material for shear-critical RC beams
- 2018
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Ingår i: International Conference on Concrete Repair, Rehabilitation and Retrofitting (ICCRRR 2018). - : EDP Sciences. ; , s. 1-6
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper investigates the effectiveness of fabric reinforced cementitious matrix (FRCM) systems in shear-strengthening of reinforced concrete beams. Three types of FRCM systems were considered, namely, polyparaphenylene benzobisoxazole (PBO)-FRCM, Carbon-FRCM, and Glass-FRCM. At first, tensile characterization test was performed on 15 FRCM coupons with the aim of identifying the tensile properties of the FRCM systems adopted. After that, seven shear-critical RC beams were tested under three-point loading, with the consideration of two test parameters: (a) FRCM material (glass/carbon/PBO); and (b) strengthening configuration (full/intermittent). The study results revealed the use of FRCM as a strengthening material to achieve a considerable improvement in the structural capacity of shear-critical RC beams. The average gain in the shear capacity of the FRCM-strengthened beams was 57%. The beam specimens strengthened with carbon-FRCM showed the highest improvement as compared to those strengthened with glass-and PBO-FRCM systems. As intuitively expected, the shear capacity improvement achieved with the full-length strengthening systems was generally higher than that with the intermittent counterparts.
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| 7. |
- Younis, Adel, et al.
(författare)
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Fresh and hardened properties of seawater-mixed concrete
- 2018
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Ingår i: Construction and Building Materials. - : Elsevier. - 0950-0618 .- 1879-0526. ; 190, s. 276-286
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using seawater for mixing concrete is potentially advantageous from a sustainability perspective. However, the presence of high concentrations of chloride in the seawater can lead to corrosion of steel reinforcement. This issue can be addressed by using non-corrosive reinforcement; e.g., fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) bars. Moreover, the global threat of freshwater scarcity suggests that the use of seawater in concrete mixtures becomes plausible in the future. This paper reports on the results of an extensive experimental study to compare the fresh and hardened properties of freshwater- and seawater-mixed concretes. The experimental program included the following tests: (a) characterization of fresh concrete (slump flow, density, yield, air content, and setting time); (b) mechanical characterization of hardened concrete (compressive strength, splitting tensile strength, and shrinkage); and (c) permeability performance of hardened concrete (rapid chloride permeability, chloride migration, and water absorption). The use of seawater had a notable effect on the fresh concrete properties. Mechanical performance of seawater concrete was slightly lower than that of the freshwater-mixed concrete. The permeability performance of hardened concrete in the two mixtures was similar. Scanning electron microscopy and isothermal calorimetry were used as supplementary tools to better explain the experimental observations. Finally, remedial measures were proposed based on lab trials to improve the properties of seawater concrete.
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| 8. |
- Younis, Adel, et al.
(författare)
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Life cycle cost analysis of structural concrete using seawater, recycled concrete aggregate, and GFRP reinforcement
- 2018
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Ingår i: Construction and Building Materials. - : Elsevier. - 0950-0618 .- 1879-0526. ; 175, s. 152-160
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using seawater and recycled concrete aggregate (RCA) in a concrete mix is potentially advantageous from a sustainability perspective. However, the high chloride levels expected in such a case demands the use of non-corrosive reinforcement in lieu of normal black steel to avoid corrosion problems. Glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) is considered promising as an alternative reinforcement owing to its corrosion resistance and acceptable mechanical properties that minimize maintenance and repairs and extend service life. However, the relatively high initial cost of GFRP bars may mitigate its potential use. To account for these factors, a life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) has been conducted to establish the relative cost savings of structural concrete combining seawater, RCA, and GFRP reinforcement in high-rise buildings compared with a traditional concrete mix and other reinforcement materials, such as black steel and stainless steel. The proposed combination of seawater, RCA, and GFRP in structural concrete was found to achieve cost savings over a 20-year period following initial construction. The life cycle cost (LCC) obtained for the proposed combination was approximately 50% less than that of the conventional counterpart (i.e. concrete with freshwater, natural aggregates, and black steel) based on a 100-year study period. The use of stainless-steel reinforcement to enhance durability was also found to be potentially advantageous but less cost-effective than using GFRP. The LCC of stainless-steel reinforced concrete was estimated to be 15% lower than that of the traditional steel-reinforced counterpart, with a payback period of 50 years. Results were found to be highly sensitive to the assumed discount rate and construction costs. The proposed combination achieved cost savings only with a real discount rate (r) of 5.9% or higher. Likewise, using stainless-steel reinforcement was found cost-effective at r⩜1.35% and nominal construction costs exceeding 85% of the material cost. The differences in concrete mixture cost, however, appeared to have insignificant influence on the ultimate LCCA results compared to those obtained from altering the reinforcement material.
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