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- Pennells, Lisa, et al.
(författare)
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Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration : individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies
- 2019
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 40:7, s. 621-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.
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| 2. |
- Persson, Carina, 1964, et al.
(författare)
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Greening of the brown-dwarf desert EPIC 212036875b: a 51 M-J object in a 5-day orbit around an F7V star
- 2019
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 628
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. Although more than 2000 brown dwarfs have been detected to date, mainly from direct imaging, their characterisation is difficult due to their faintness and model-dependent results. In the case of transiting brown dwarfs, however, it is possible to make direct high-precision observations. Aims. Our aim is to investigate the nature and formation of brown dwarfs by adding a new well-characterised object, in terms of its mass, radius and bulk density, to the currently small sample of less than 20 transiting brown dwarfs. Methods. One brown dwarf candidate was found by the KESPRINT consortium when searching for exoplanets in the K2 space mission Campaign 16 field. We combined the K2 photometric data with a series of multicolour photometric observations, imaging, and radial velocity measurements to rule out false positive scenarios and to determine the fundamental properties of the system. Results. We report the discovery and characterisation of a transiting brown dwarf in a 5.17-day eccentric orbit around the slightly evolved F7V star EPIC 212036875. We find a stellar mass of 1.15 +/- 0.08 M-circle dot, a stellar radius of 1.41 +/- 0.05 R-circle dot, and an age of 5.1 +/- 0.9 Gyr. The mass and radius of the companion brown dwarf are 51 +/- 2 M-J and 0.83 +/- 0.03 R-J, respectively, corresponding to a mean density of 108(-13)(+15) g cm(-3). Conclusions. EPIC 212036875 b is a rare object that resides in the brown-dwarf desert. In the mass-density diagram for planets, brown dwarfs, and stars, we find that all giant planets and brown dwarfs follow the same trend from similar to 0.3 M-J to the turn-over to hydrogen burning stars at similar to 73 M-J. EPIC 212036875 b falls close to the theoretical model for mature H/He dominated objects in this diagram as determined by interior structure models. We argue that EPIC 212036875 b formed via gravitational disc instabilities in the outer part of the disc, followed by a quick migration. Orbital tidal circularisation may have started early in its history for a brief period when the brown dwarf's radius was larger. The lack of spin-orbit synchronisation points to a weak stellar dissipation parameter (Q(star)' greater than or similar to 10(8)), which implies a circularisation timescale of greater than or similar to 23 Gyr, or suggests an interaction between the magnetic and tidal forces of the star and the brown dwarf.
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