| 1. |
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- 2017
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Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 96:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Oprea, Tudor I, et al.
(författare)
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Unexplored therapeutic opportunities in the human genome
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nature Reviews Drug Discovery. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1474-1776 .- 1474-1784. ; 17:5, s. 317-332
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A large proportion of biomedical research and the development of therapeutics is focused on a small fraction of the human genome. In a strategic effort to map the knowledge gaps around proteins encoded by the human genome and to promote the exploration of currently understudied, but potentially druggable, proteins, the US National Institutes of Health launched the Illuminating the Druggable Genome (IDG) initiative in 2014. In this article, we discuss how the systematic collection and processing of a wide array of genomic, proteomic, chemical and disease-related resource data by the IDG Knowledge Management Center have enabled the development of evidence-based criteria for tracking the target development level (TDL) of human proteins, which indicates a substantial knowledge deficit for approximately one out of three proteins in the human proteome. We then present spotlights on the TDL categories as well as key drug target classes, including G protein-coupled receptors, protein kinases and ion channels, which illustrate the nature of the unexplored opportunities for biomedical research and therapeutic development.
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| 4. |
- Ardura-Fabregat, A., et al.
(författare)
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Targeting Neuroinflammation to Treat Alzheimer’s Disease
- 2017
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Ingår i: CNS Drugs. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1172-7047 .- 1179-1934. ; 31:12, s. 1-26
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Over the past few decades, research on Alzheimer’s disease (AD) has focused on pathomechanisms linked to two of the major pathological hallmarks of extracellular deposition of beta-amyloid peptides and intra-neuronal formation of neurofibrils. Recently, a third disease component, the neuroinflammatory reaction mediated by cerebral innate immune cells, has entered the spotlight, prompted by findings from genetic, pre-clinical, and clinical studies. Various proteins that arise during neurodegeneration, including beta-amyloid, tau, heat shock proteins, and chromogranin, among others, act as danger-associated molecular patterns, that—upon engagement of pattern recognition receptors—induce inflammatory signaling pathways and ultimately lead to the production and release of immune mediators. These may have beneficial effects but ultimately compromise neuronal function and cause cell death. The current review, assembled by participants of the Chiclana Summer School on Neuroinflammation 2016, provides an overview of our current understanding of AD-related immune processes. We describe the principal cellular and molecular players in inflammation as they pertain to AD, examine modifying factors, and discuss potential future therapeutic targets.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Ganna, A., et al.
(författare)
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Large-scale GWAS reveals insights into the genetic architecture of same-sex sexual behavior
- 2019
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 365:6456
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Twin and family studies have shown that same-sex sexual behavior is partly genetically influenced, but previous searches for specific genes involved have been underpowered. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) on 477,522 individuals, revealing five loci significantly associated with same-sex sexual behavior. In aggregate, all tested genetic variants accounted for 8 to 25% of variation in same-sex sexual behavior, only partially overlapped between males and females, and do not allow meaningful prediction of an individual's sexual behavior. Comparing these GWAS results with those for the proportion of same-sex to total number of sexual partners among nonheterosexuals suggests that there is no single continuum from opposite-sex to same-sex sexual behavior. Overall, our findings provide insights into the genetics underlying same-sex sexual behavior and underscore the complexity of sexuality.
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| 7. |
- Mourikis, TP, et al.
(författare)
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Patient-specific cancer genes contribute to recurrently perturbed pathways and establish therapeutic vulnerabilities in esophageal adenocarcinoma
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 10:1, s. 3101-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The identification of cancer-promoting genetic alterations is challenging particularly in highly unstable and heterogeneous cancers, such as esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Here we describe a machine learning algorithm to identify cancer genes in individual patients considering all types of damaging alterations simultaneously. Analysing 261 EACs from the OCCAMS Consortium, we discover helper genes that, alongside well-known drivers, promote cancer. We confirm the robustness of our approach in 107 additional EACs. Unlike recurrent alterations of known drivers, these cancer helper genes are rare or patient-specific. However, they converge towards perturbations of well-known cancer processes. Recurrence of the same process perturbations, rather than individual genes, divides EACs into six clusters differing in their molecular and clinical features. Experimentally mimicking the alterations of predicted helper genes in cancer and pre-cancer cells validates their contribution to disease progression, while reverting their alterations reveals EAC acquired dependencies that can be exploited in therapy.
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| 8. |
- Roselli, Carolina, et al.
(författare)
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Multi-ethnic genome-wide association study for atrial fibrillation
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 50:9, s. 1225-1233
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Atrial fibrillation (AF) affects more than 33 million individuals worldwide(1) and has a complex heritability(2). We conducted the largest meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for AF to date, consisting of more than half a million individuals, including 65,446 with AF. In total, we identified 97 loci significantly associated with AF, including 67 that were novel in a combined-ancestry analysis, and 3 that were novel in a European-specific analysis. We sought to identify AF-associated genes at the GWAS loci by performing RNA-sequencing and expression quantitative trait locus analyses in 101 left atrial samples, the most relevant tissue for AF. We also performed transcriptome-wide analyses that identified 57 AF-associated genes, 42 of which overlap with GWAS loci. The identified loci implicate genes enriched within cardiac developmental, electrophysiological, contractile and structural pathways. These results extend our understanding of the biological pathways underlying AF and may facilitate the development of therapeutics for AF.
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| 9. |
- Turkington, RC, et al.
(författare)
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Immune activation by DNA damage predicts response to chemotherapy and survival in oesophageal adenocarcinoma
- 2019
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Ingår i: Gut. - : BMJ. - 1468-3288 .- 0017-5749. ; 68:11, s. 1918-1927
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Current strategies to guide selection of neoadjuvant therapy in oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) are inadequate. We assessed the ability of a DNA damage immune response (DDIR) assay to predict response following neoadjuvant chemotherapy in OAC.DesignTranscriptional profiling of 273 formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded prechemotherapy endoscopic OAC biopsies was performed. All patients were treated with platinum-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy and resection between 2003 and 2014 at four centres in the Oesophageal Cancer Clinical and Molecular Stratification consortium. CD8 and programmed death ligand 1 (PD-L1) immunohistochemical staining was assessed in matched resection specimens from 126 cases. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards regression analysis were applied according to DDIR status for recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS).ResultsA total of 66 OAC samples (24%) were DDIR positive with the remaining 207 samples (76%) being DDIR negative. DDIR assay positivity was associated with improved RFS (HR: 0.61; 95% CI 0.38 to 0.98; p=0.042) and OS (HR: 0.52; 95% CI 0.31 to 0.88; p=0.015) following multivariate analysis. DDIR-positive patients had a higher pathological response rate (p=0.033), lower nodal burden (p=0.026) and reduced circumferential margin involvement (p=0.007). No difference in OS was observed according to DDIR status in an independent surgery-alone dataset.DDIR-positive OAC tumours were also associated with the presence of CD8+ lymphocytes (intratumoural: p<0.001; stromal: p=0.026) as well as PD-L1 expression (intratumoural: p=0.047; stromal: p=0.025).ConclusionThe DDIR assay is strongly predictive of benefit from DNA-damaging neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by surgical resection and is associated with a proinflammatory microenvironment in OAC.
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| 10. |
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| 11. |
- Dudding, Tom, et al.
(författare)
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Genome wide analysis for mouth ulcers identifies associations at immune regulatory loci
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. - 2041-1723. ; 10, s. 1-12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Mouth ulcers are the most common ulcerative condition and encompass several clinical diagnoses, including recurrent aphthous stomatitis (RAS). Despite previous evidence for heritability, it is not clear which specific genetic loci are implicated in RAS. In this genome-wide association study (n = 461,106) heritability is estimated at 8.2% (95% CI: 6.4%, 9.9%). This study finds 97 variants which alter the odds of developing non-specific mouth ulcers and replicate these in an independent cohort (n = 355,744) (lead variant after meta-analysis: rs76830965, near IL12A, OR 0.72 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.73); P = 4.4e-483). Additional effect estimates from three independent cohorts with more specific phenotyping and specific study characteristics support many of these findings. In silico functional analyses provide evidence for a role of T cell regulation in the aetiology of mouth ulcers. These results provide novel insight into the pathogenesis of a common, important condition.
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| 12. |
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| 13. |
- Parati, G, et al.
(författare)
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MASked-unconTrolled hypERtension management based on office BP or on ambulatory blood pressure measurement (MASTER) Study: a randomised controlled trial protocol
- 2018
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Ingår i: BMJ open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055. ; 8:12, s. e021038-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Masked uncontrolled hypertension (MUCH) carries an increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) complications and can be identified through combined use of office (O) and ambulatory (A) blood pressure (BP) monitoring (M) in treated patients. However, it is still debated whether the information carried by ABPM should be considered for MUCH management. Aim of the MASked-unconTrolled hypERtension management based on OBP or on ambulatory blood pressure measurement (MASTER) Study is to assess the impact on outcome of MUCH management based on OBPM or ABPM.Methods and analysisMASTER is a 4-year prospective, randomised, open-label, blinded-endpoint investigation. A total of 1240 treated hypertensive patients from about 40 secondary care clinical centres worldwide will be included -upon confirming presence of MUCH (repeated on treatment OBP <140/90 mm Hg, and at least one of the following: daytime ABP ≥135/85 mm Hg; night-time ABP ≥120/70 mm Hg; 24 hour ABP ≥130/80 mm Hg), and will be randomised to a management strategy based on OBPM (group 1) or on ABPM (group 2). Patients in group 1 will have OBP measured at 0, 3, 6, 12, 18, 24, 30, 36, 42 and 48 months and taken as a guide for treatment; ABPM will be performed at randomisation and at 12, 24, 36 and 48 months but will not be used to take treatment decisions. Patients randomised to group 2 will have ABPM performed at randomisation and all scheduled visits as a guide to antihypertensive treatment. The effects of MUCH management strategy based on ABPM or on OBPM on CV and renal intermediate outcomes (changing left ventricular mass and microalbuminuria, coprimary outcomes) at 1 year and on CV events at 4 years and on changes in BP-related variables will be assessed.Ethics and disseminationMASTER study protocol has received approval by the ethical review board of Istituto Auxologico Italiano. The procedures set out in this protocol are in accordance with principles of Declaration of Helsinki and Good Clinical Practice guidelines. Results will be published in accordance with the CONSORT statement in a peer-reviewed scientific journal.Trial registration numberNCT02804074; Pre-results.
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| 16. |
- Sukma Dewi, Ihdina, et al.
(författare)
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Association of serum MiR-142-3p and MiR-101-3p levels with acute cellular rejection after heart transplantation
- 2017
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Ingår i: PLoS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 12:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Identifying non-invasive and reliable blood-derived biomarkers for early detection of acute cellular rejection in heart transplant recipients is of great importance in clinical practice. MicroRNAs are small molecules found to be stable in serum and their expression patterns reflect both physiological and underlying pathological conditions in human. Methods: We compared a group of heart transplant recipients with histologically-verified acute cellular rejection (ACR, n = 26) with a control group of heart transplant recipients without allograft rejection (NR, n = 37) by assessing the levels of a select set of microRNAs in serum specimens. Results: The levels of seven microRNAs, miR-142-3p, miR-101-3p, miR-424-5p, miR-27a-3p, miR-144-3p, miR-339-3p and miR-326 were significantly higher in ACR group compared to the control group and could discriminate between patients with and without allograft rejection. MiR-142-3p and miR-101-3p had the best diagnostic test performance among the microRNAs tested. Serum levels of miR-142-3p and miR-101-3p were independent of calcineurin inhibitor levels, as measured by tacrolimus and cyclosporin; kidney function, as measured by creatinine level, and general inflammation state, as measured by CRP level. Conclusion: This study demonstrated two microRNAs, miR-142-3p and miR-101-3p, that could be relevant as non-invasive diagnostic tools for identifying heart transplant patients with acute cellular rejection.
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| 17. |
- Bowes, John, et al.
(författare)
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PTPN22 is associated with susceptibility to psoriatic arthritis but not psoriasis : evidence for a further PsA-specific risk locus
- 2015
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Ingår i: Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases. - : BMJ. - 0003-4967 .- 1468-2060. ; 74:10, s. 1882-1885
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is a chronic inflammatory arthritis associated with psoriasis; it has a higher estimated genetic component than psoriasis alone, however most genetic susceptibility loci identified for PsA to date are also shared with psoriasis. Here we attempt to validate novel single nucleotide polymorphisms selected from our recent PsA Immunochip study and determine specificity to PsA. Methods A total of 15 single nucleotide polymorphisms were selected (P-Immunochip <1x10(-4)) for validation genotyping in 1177 cases and 2155 controls using TaqMan. Meta-analysis of Immunochip and validation data sets consisted of 3139 PsA cases and 11 078 controls. Novel PsA susceptibility loci were compared with data from two large psoriasis studies (WTCCC2 and Immunochip) to determine PsA specificity. Results We found genome-wide significant association to rs2476601, mapping to PTPN22 (p=1.49x10(-9), OR=1.32), but no evidence for association in the psoriasis cohort (p=0.34) and the effect estimates were significantly different between PsA and psoriasis (p=3.2x10(-4)). Additionally, we found genome-wide significant association to the previously reported psoriasis risk loci; NOS2 (rs4795067, p=5.27x10(-9)). Conclusions For the first time, we report genome-wide significant association of PTPN22 (rs2476601) to PsA susceptibility, but no evidence for association to psoriasis.
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| 18. |
- Doherty, M., et al.
(författare)
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Plasma N-glycans in colorectal cancer risk
- 2018
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Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aberrant glycosylation has been associated with a number of diseases including cancer. Our aim was to elucidate changes in whole plasma W-glycosylation between colorectal cancer (CRC) cases and controls in one of the largest cohorts of its kind. A set of 633 CRC patients and 478 age and gender matched controls was analysed. Additionally, patients were stratified into four CRC stages. Moreover, W-glycan analysis was carried out in plasma of 40 patients collected prior to the initial diagnosis of CRC. Statistically significant differences were observed in the plasma N-glycome at all stages of CRC, this included a highly significant decrease in relation to the core fucosylated bi-antennary glycans F(6)A2G2 and F(6)A2G2S(6)1 (P < 0.0009). Stage 1 showed a unique biomarker signature compared to stages 2, 3 and 4. There were indications that at risk groups could be identified from the glycome (retrospective AUC = 0.77 and prospective AUC = 0.65). N-glycome biomarkers related to the pathogenic progress of the disease would be a considerable asset in a clinical setting and it could enable novel therapeutics to be developed to target the disease in patients at risk of progression.
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| 19. |
- Ferreira, David, et al.
(författare)
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Atlantic-Pacific Asymmetry in Deep Water Formation
- 2018
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Ingår i: Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Science. - : Annual Reviews. - 0084-6597 .- 1545-4495. ; 46, s. 327-352
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- While the Atlantic Ocean is ventilated by high-latitude deep water formation and exhibits a pole-to-pole overturning circulation, the Pacific Ocean does not. This asymmetric global overturning pattern has persisted for the past 2-3 million years, with evidence for different ventilation modes in the deeper past. In the current climate, the Atlantic-Pacific asymmetry occurs because the Atlantic is more saline, enabling deep convection. To what extent the salinity contrast between the two basins is dominated by atmospheric processes (larger net evaporation over the Atlantic) or oceanic processes (salinity transport into the Atlantic) remains an outstanding question. Numerical simulations have provided support for both mechanisms; observations of the present climate support a strong role for atmospheric processes as well as some modulation by oceanic processes. A major avenue for future work is the quantification of the various processes at play to identify which mechanisms are primary in different climate states.
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| 20. |
- Grant, Marcus, et al.
(författare)
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Research for City Practice
- 2017
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Ingår i: Cities and Health. - : Informa UK Limited. - 2374-8834 .- 2374-8842. ; 1:2, s. 108-119
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- CITY KNOW-HOW: Human health and planetary health are both influenced by city lifestyles, city leadership, and city development. For both, worrying trends are leading to increasing concern. It is imperative that both become core foci in urban policy. Changing the trajectory will require concerted action. The journal Cities & Health journal is dedicated to supporting the flow of knowledge, in all directions to help make this happen. We want to support communication between researchers, practitioners, policy-makers, communities and decision-makers in cities. This is the purpose of this City Know-how section of the journal. ‘Research for city practice’ disseminates lessons from research, explaining the key messages for city leaders, communities and the professions involved in city policy and practice. ‘City shorts’ provide glimpses of what is being attempted or achieved. ‘Case studies’ are where you will find evaluations of interventions and ‘Commentary and debate’ helps extend the conversations we are having and develop much needed new thinking. Join in these conversations. In service to strengthening the community of interest, we would like to include many and varied voices, including those from younger practitioners and researchers, connected with supporting health and health equity in everyday urban lives.
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| 21. |
- Mitra, Aditee, et al.
(författare)
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Defining Planktonic Protist Functional Groups on Mechanisms for Energy and Nutrient Acquisition : Incorporation of Diverse Mixotrophic Strategies
- 2016
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Ingår i: Protist. - : Elsevier BV. - 1434-4610 .- 1618-0941. ; 167:2, s. 106-120
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Arranging organisms into functional groups aids ecological research by grouping organisms (irrespective of phylogenetic origin) that interact with environmental factors in similar ways. Planktonic protists traditionally have been split between photoautotrophic "phytoplankton" and phagotrophic "microzooplankton". However, there is a growing recognition of the importance of mixotrophy in euphotic aquatic systems, where many protists often combine photoautotrophic and phagotrophic modes of nutrition. Such organisms do not align with the traditional dichotomy of phytoplankton and microzooplankton. To reflect this understanding, we propose a new functional grouping of planktonic protists in an ecophysiological context: (i) phagoheterotrophs lacking phototrophic capacity, (ii) photoautotrophs lacking phagotrophic capacity, (iii) constitutive mixotrophs (CMs) as phagotrophs with an inherent capacity for phototrophy, and (iv) non-constitutive mixotrophs (NCMs) that acquire their phototrophic capacity by ingesting specific (SNCM) or general non-specific (GNCM) prey. For the first time, we incorporate these functional groups within a foodweb structure and show, using model outputs, that there is scope for significant changes in trophic dynamics depending on the protist functional type description. Accordingly, to better reflect the role of mixotrophy, we recommend that as important tools for explanatory and predictive research, aquatic food-web and biogeochemical models need to redefine the protist groups within their frameworks. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.
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| 22. |
- Ng, Roger Man-kin, et al.
(författare)
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Bipolar risk and mental imagery susceptibility in a representative sample of Chinese adults residing in the community
- 2016
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Ingår i: International Journal of Social Psychiatry. - : SAGE PUBLICATIONS LTD. - 0020-7640 .- 1741-2854. ; 62:1, s. 94-102
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: We need to better understand the cognitive factors associated with risk for bipolar disorders. Recent research suggests that increased susceptibility to mental imagery may be one such factor. However, since this research was primarily conducted with Western students and at a single time-point, it is not known whether the relationship between imagery susceptibility and bipolar symptoms exists across cultures or within the general community, or whether this relationship remains stable over time. Aim: This study evaluated whether Chinese adults identified as being at high (HR) versus low (LR) risk of developing bipolar disorders showed greater mental imagery susceptibility. We aimed to test whether such a relationship was stable over time by measuring imagery characteristics at baseline and at the 7-week follow-up. Method: This prospective study recruited a community sample of N=80 Chinese adults screened for the absence of neurotic and psychotic disorders. The sample was split into HR (n=18) and LR (n=62) groups at baseline based on a criterion cut-off score on a measure of hypomania, the Mood Disorder Questionnaire (MDQ). Participants completed measures of imagery susceptibility and its impact: the Spontaneous Use of Imagery Scale (SUIS) and the Impact of Future Events Scale (IFES), at baseline and 7 weeks later. Results: HR group reported greater tendency to use imagery in daily life (SUIS) and greater emotional impact of prospective imagery (IFES) than LR group at baseline. These results remained stable at follow-up. Conclusion: This study provides preliminary evidence for increased susceptibility to mental imagery in individuals at high risk of bipolar disorders recruited from a community sample of Chinese adults. This extends previous research in Western student samples suggesting that imagery (both levels of use and its emotional impact) may be a cognitive factor with cross-cultural relevance that is stable over time.
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| 23. |
- Ng, Roger M. K., et al.
(författare)
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'Flash-forwards' and suicidal ideation : A prospective investigation of mental imagery, entrapment and defeat in a cohort from the Hong Kong Mental Morbidity Survey
- 2016
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Ingår i: Psychiatry Research. - : ELSEVIER IRELAND LTD. - 0165-1781 .- 1872-7123. ; 246, s. 453-460
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- 'Flash-forwards' - mental images of suicide - have been reported in selected Caucasian samples. Perceptions of defeat and entrapment are considered to be associated with suicidal ideation. We aimed to investigate (1) the presence of suicidal flash-forwards in people with recent suicidal ideation versus those without such ideation in an Asian sample, and (2) associations between suicidal flash-forwards, and perceptions of entrapment accounting for suicidal ideation. Eighty two suicidal and 80 non-suicidal participants from the Hong Kong Mental Morbidity Survey completed questionnaires including suicidal ideation, presence of suicidal flash-forward images, defeat and entrapment, at baseline and seven weeks later. Suicidal 'flash-forwards' were present only in suicidal cases. People with recent suicidal ideation and suicidal flash-forwards had more severe suicidal ideation than those without flash-forwards. Compared to those without suicidal ideation, people with recent suicidal ideation reported higher entrapment and defeat levels. Resolution of suicidal ideation over time was associated with fewer suicidal flash-forwards and reduced entrapment perceptions. At baseline and seven weeks, suicidal ideation was predicted by an interaction between suicidal flash-forwards presence and perceptions of entrapment. Mental imagery of suicide appears to be associated with suicidal ideation, and may represent a novel target in suicidal risk assessment and prevention.
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| 24. |
- Zafari, Zafar, et al.
(författare)
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Individualized prediction of lung-function decline in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
- 2016
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Ingår i: CMAJ. - : CMA Joule Inc.. - 0820-3946. ; 188:14, s. 1004-1010
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The rate of lung-function decline in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) varies substantially among individuals. We sought to develop and validate an individualized prediction model for forced expiratory volume at 1 second (FEV1) in current smokers with mild-to-moderate COPD. Methods: Using data from a large long-term clinical trial (the Lung Health Study), we derived mixed-effects regression models to predict future FEV1 values over 11 years according to clinical traits. We modelled heterogeneity by allowing regression coefficients to vary across individuals. Two independent cohorts with COPD were used for validating the equations. Results: We used data from 5594 patients (mean age 48.4 yr, 63% men, mean baseline FEV1 2.75 L) to create the individualized prediction equations. There was significant between-individual variability in the rate of FEV1 decline, with the interval for the annual rate of decline that contained 95% of individuals being -124 to -15 mL/yr for smokers and -83 to 15 mL/yr for sustained quitters. Clinical variables in the final model explained 88% of variation around follow-up FEV1. The C statistic for predicting severity grades was 0.90. Prediction equations performed robustly in the 2 external data sets. Interpretation: A substantial part of individual variation in FEV1 decline can be explained by easily measured clinical variables. The model developed in this work can be used for prediction of future lung health in patients with mild-to-moderate COPD.
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