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- Lundquist, Karl-Johan, et al.
(författare)
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The technology shift thesis : Understanding long term growth and transformation in a regional system
- 2017. - 1
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The technology shift thesisUnderstanding long term growth and transformation in a regional systemAbstractIn this paper we examines the long run economic growth and productivity performance of regions and how this relates to different phases of structural change and economic adaptability in different part of a national regional system.Firstly, we suggest a theoretical ‘systemic’ approach for analyzing long term regional economic growth and transformation. Special emphasis is given to radical technology shifts and their effect in time and space, such as lead-lag relations between industries and regions leading to divergence and convergence in regional growth as consequences of technological change, market integration and economic growth. We hypothesis that technology shifts in combination with industry structure and the existing hierarchy of regions will put strong restriction on what can be achieved in terms of transformation and growth for single regions in specific time periods but also on how interdependency in a regional system evolves over time. Secondly, in the empirical work, based on detailed analysis of the Swedish regional system 1985-2008, we show that the technology shift have targeted various part of the regional system at different points of time setting the overall average agenda for structural change, productivity development and growth for different levels of the regional system. Further on we have found that regions belonging to different level of the hierarchy tend to follow different “growth corridors” giving the basic precondition for regions to take advantage or not of the impact from the technology shift. Finally we have identified outliers and unexpected idiosyncratic regional growth trajectories calling for further in-depth research.
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- Eng Larsson, Fredrik, et al.
(författare)
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Explaining the cyclic behavior of freight transport CO2-emissions in Sweden over time
- 2012
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Ingår i: Transport Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 1879-310X .- 0967-070X. ; 23, s. 79-87
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Economic growth is often considered to be the main factor behind, and tightly coupled to, the increase in freight transport work and its energy use. Recent research has quantified the relative contribution from underlying factors like value density of products, transport intensity and carbon intensity of fuel. In this work we rely on the theory of economic growth cycles in order to explain the dynamic behavior of some of these indicators. Focusing on the current growth cycle, we analyze Swedish data in a Shapley decomposition model, and the behaviors of the underlying factors are confronted against the growth cycle theory and recent findings in micro logistics. Our results suggests that the different and changing relations between growth and emission over the growth cycle indicate that the observed development in emissions is far from linear and cannot be explained straightforwardly by economic growth. The impact of the respective factor, and the relation between them, changes over time and results in different degrees of decoupling. The general trend is that micro-oriented factors tend to be more important in the rationalization period while macro-oriented factors have a stronger impact during the transformation period. We suggest that our approach might be useful not only for analyzing historical data, but also for medium-term and long-term scenarios for freight transport development and CO2- emissions. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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- Lundquist, Karl-Johan, et al.
(författare)
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Decomposing the Technology Shift. Evidence from the Swedish Manufacturing Sector
- 2008
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Ingår i: Tijdschrift Voor Economische en Sociale Geografie. - : Wiley. - 0040-747X .- 1467-9663. ; 99:2, s. 145-159
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The aim of this paper is to conduct an analysis of the changing geographies of production and industrial renewal in Sweden during the period 1978 to 2004. Conceptually, we build on the regional version of the technology shift cycle thesis. This is performed in two steps and by combinations of national and regional empirical evidence. First, we construct a taxonomic method that distinguishes between renewed, followers, transformed, induced, contracting, and obsolete industries in the national production system. These different kinds of industries have all had different roles in the dramatic transformation of Swedish manufacturing, and we empirically identify the groups of industries using new time series data. Second, the regional footprints of the transformation are investigated applying a systemic view of regional development. The results of our investigations provide a detailed picture of the anatomies of both sector and regional transformation of the Swedish economy.
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- Lundquist, Karl-Johan, et al.
(författare)
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Growth cycles. Transformation and regional development
- 2010
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Ingår i: SRE-DISC2010/4. ; , s. 1-29
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Departing from the renewed interest within economic history and neo-Schumpeterian perspectives on growth and economic transformation, we will suggest a theoretical framework for analyzing long term regional economic growth and transformation. Emphasis will be given to different driving forces and their various roles over time, lead-lag relations between industries and how divergence and convergence between regions shift cyclically as consequences of technological change, market integration and economic growth. We claim that systemic approaches in general have been neglected in regional science in favor of “neo-regionalism” in the sense that the study of regional growth has been focusing for years on regional innovation systems and cluster theories without any regard to systemic relations at all. Using detailed time series data and applying a systemic approach we will follow Swedish regions from the structural crises in the mid 1970s to the starting point of the present financial crises. Our results suggest that there are time lags as well as systemic spatial asymmetries between industries and regions leading to changing patterns of divergence and convergence in the regional system. Furthermore, there are indications that the regional disparities between centre and periphery have increased compared to the situation in the mid 1970s.
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- Lundquist, Karl-Johan, et al.
(författare)
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Producer Services, Growth and Roles in Long Term Economic Development
- 2008
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Ingår i: Service Industries Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0264-2069 .- 1743-9507. ; 28:4, s. 463-477
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper deals with the varying roles of producer services in economic transformation during the last 30 years in Sweden, and analyses unique longitudinal data on eight service sectors. The theoretical background for the analysis is inspired by the technology shift thesis of economic historians, and we show that the renewal and transformation of producer services has taken place later than for the manufacturing sector. The importance of producer services in national growth increased enormously towards the end of the period, but we also note that this growth has been accompanied by a divergence in growth between service sectors.
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- Lundquist, Karl-Johan, et al.
(författare)
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Tillväxtens cykler. Nationell omvandling och regional utveckling
- 2011
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Ingår i: Storstäder och tillväxt. Om storstadsregioners roll, betydelse och utmaningar för hållbar ekonomisk utveckling. - 0431-2023. - 9789150622218 ; Geografiska regionsstudier 87
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)
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- Neffke, Frank, et al.
(författare)
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The Dynamics of Agglomeration Externalities along the Life Cycle of Industries
- 2011
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Ingår i: Regional Studies. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1360-0591 .- 0034-3404. ; 45:1, s. 49-65
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Abstract in UndeterminedThe dynamics of agglomeration externalities along the life cycle of industries, Regional Studies. This paper investigates the changing roles of agglomeration externalities along the industry life cycle. It is argued that industries have different agglomeration needs in different stages of their life cycles because their mode of competition, innovation intensity, and learning opportunities change over time. For twelve Swedish manufacturing industries, it is determined for each year between 1974 and 2004 whether the industry is in a young, intermediate, or mature stage. Whereas Marshall-Arrow-Romer (MAR) externalities steadily increase with the maturity of industries, the effects of local diversity (Jacobs' externalities) are positive for young industries, but decline and even become negative for more mature industries. [image omitted] Neffke F., Henning M., Boschma R., Lundquist K.-J. et Olander L.-O. La dynamique des effets externes d'agglomeration tout au long du cycle de vie des industries, Regional Studies. Cet article cherche a examiner l'evolution du role des effets externes d'agglomeration tout au long du cycle de vie des industries. On soutient que les atouts de l'agglomeration varient suivant la phase du cycle de vie parce que le mode de competition, l'intensite de l'innovation, et les possiblites d'apprentissage des industries evoluent dans le temps. On determine pour douze industries suedoises et pour chaque annee de 1974 a 2004 si, oui ou non, une industrie est a un niveau naissant, intermediaire ou avance. Tandis que les effets externes Marshall-Arrow-Romer (MAR) augmentent regulierement au fur et a mesure du developpement des industries, les effets de la diversite locale (effets externes Jacobs) s'averent positifs pour les industries naissantes mais diminuent, voire s'averent negatifs, pour ce qui est des industries plus avancees. Cycle de vie des industries Agglomeration Effets externes Evolution Marshall-Arrow-Romer (MAR) Jacobs Neffke F., Henning M., Boschma R., Lundquist K.-J. und Olander L.-O. Die Dynamik von Agglomerationsexternalitaten wahrend des Lebenszyklus von Branchen, Regional Studies. In diesem Beitrag untersuchen wir die wechselnden Rollen von Agglomerationsexternalitaten im Laufe des Lebenszyklus von Branchen. Wir stellen die These auf, dass die Branchen in verschiedenen Phasen ihrer Lebenszyklen verschiedene Agglomerationsbedurfnisse aufweisen, da sich die Art ihres Wettbewerbs, die Intensitat der Innovationen und die Chancen zum Lernen im Laufe der Zeit verandern. Anhand von zwolf produzierenden Branchen Schwedens wird fur jedes Jahr von 1974 bis 2004 festgestellt, ob sich die Branchen jeweils in einem jungen, mittleren oder reifen Stadium befinden. Wahrend die Marshall-Arrow-Romer-(MAR)-Externalitaten mit zunehmender Reife der Branchen gleichmassig zunehmen, fallen die Auswirkungen der lokalen Diversitat (Jacobs-Externalitaten) fur junge Branchen positiv aus, nehmen dann aber fur reifere Branchen ab und werden schliesslich sogar negativ. Lebenszyklus von Branchen Agglomeration Externalitaten Evolution Marshall-Arrow-Romer (MAR) Jacobs Neffke F., Henning M., Boschma R., Lundquist K.-J. y Olander L.-O. Las dinamicas de los efectos externos de aglomeracion en el ciclo vital de las industrias, Regional Studies. En este articulo analizamos las funciones cambiantes de los efectos externos de aglomeracion en el ciclo vital de sectores industriales.Argumentamos que las industrias tienen diferentes necesidades de aglomeracion en distintas fase de sus ciclos vitales ya que su modo de competicion, intensidad de innovacion y oportunidades de aprendizaje evolucionan con el tiempo. En doce sectores industriales manufactureros de Suecia se determino para cada ano desde 1974 a 2004 si la industria estaba en una fase joven, intermedia o madura. Mientras que los efectos externos Marshall-Arrow-Romer (MAR) aumentan de forma constante con la madurez de las industrias, los efectos de la diversidad local (las externalidades de Jacob) son positivas en las industrias jovenes, no obstante para las industrias mas maduras los efectos entran en declive e incluso se vuelven negativos. Ciclo vital de las industrias Aglomeracion Efectos externos Evolucion Marshall-Arrow-Romer (MAR) Jacobs.
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- Olander, Lars-Olof, et al.
(författare)
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Godstransporter och CO2. Ett makroperspektiv
- 2011
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Ingår i: Vägval 2050. Styrningsutmaningar och förändringsstrategier för en omställning till ett kolsnålt samhälle. ; LETS-rapport, s. 61-67
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)
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- Påhlsson, Henrik, et al.
(författare)
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Mot koldioxidsnåla godstransporter-tillväxtdynamiskt perspektiv på logistik och godstransporter fram till 2050 : Tillväxtdynamiskt perspektiv på logistik och godstransporter fram till 2050
- 2013
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Det är både tekniskt möjligt och ekonomiskt genomförbart att ställa om till ett CO 2-snålt samhälle2050. Men för att nå en sådan målsättning måste ett antal utmaningar och hinder övervinnas, vilketkan kräva både politisk styrning och institutionell förändring.Denna rapport fokuserar specifikt på samspelet mellan utvecklingen av godstransporter, logistik ochCO 2-utsläpp. Godstransporterna, som styrs och kontrolleras av varuägande företag och aktörer påtransportmarknaden, står för 10-16 % av Sveriges totala CO 2-utsläpp. Trenden för CO 2-utsläpp frångodstransporter är dessutom ökande. Enligt prognoser gjorda på traditionell basis förväntasgodstransporterna fortsätta stiga i takt med BNP så att de blir dubbelt så omfattande 2050. En sådanutveckling står i stark kontrast till de klimatpolitiska mål som Sverige och EU fastslagit som kräverdramatiska minskningar av utsläppen. Den svenska målsättningen för 2030 innebär att CO 2-utsläppenska minska till 20 % av nivån 1990. Det svenska slutmålet för år 2050 innebär nästan en fullständigreduktion av utsläpp av växthusgaser, ett mål som ser svårnått ut med utgångspunkt i prognoserna.
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