| 1. |
- Schumacher, A. E., et al.
(författare)
-
Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
- 2024
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 403:10440, s. 1989-2056
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
|
|
| 2. |
- Fullman, N., et al.
(författare)
-
Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier BV. - 0140-6736. ; 391:10136, s. 2236-2271
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. Methods Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. Findings In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97.1 (95% UI 95.8-98.1) in Iceland, followed by 96.6 (94.9-97.9) in Norway and 96.1 (94.5-97.3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18.6 (13.1-24.4) in the Central African Republic, 19.0 (14.3-23.7) in Somalia, and 23.4 (20.2-26.8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91.5 (89.1-936) in Beijing to 48.0 (43.4-53.2) in Tibet (a 43.5-point difference), while India saw a 30.8-point disparity, from 64.8 (59.6-68.8) in Goa to 34.0 (30.3-38.1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4.8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20.9-point to 17.0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17.2-point to 20.4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle-SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view and subsequent provision of quality health care for all populations. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
|
|
| 3. |
- Abelev, B., et al.
(författare)
-
Charge correlations using the balance function in Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=2.76 TeV
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Physics Letters. Section B: Nuclear, Elementary Particle and High-Energy Physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0370-2693. ; 723:4-5, s. 267-279
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In high-energy heavy-ion collisions, the correlations between the emitted particles can be used as a probe to gain insight into the charge creation mechanisms. In this Letter, we report the first results of such studies using the electric charge balance function in the relative pseudorapidity (Delta eta) and azimuthal angle (Delta phi) in Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN) = 2.76 TeV with the ALICE detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The width of the balance function decreases with growing centrality (i.e. for more central collisions) in both projections. This centrality dependence is not reproduced by HIJING, while AMPT, a model which incorporates strings and parton rescattering, exhibits qualitative agreement with the measured correlations in Delta phi but fails to describe the correlations in Delta eta. A thermal blast-wave model incorporating local charge conservation and tuned to describe the p(T) spectra and v(2) measurements reported by ALICE, is used to fit the centrality dependence of the width of the balance function and to extract the average separation of balancing charges at freeze-out. The comparison of our results with measurements at lower energies reveals an ordering with root s(NN): the balance functions become narrower with increasing energy for all centralities. This is consistent with the effect of larger radial flow at the LHC energies but also with the late stage creation scenario of balancing charges. However, the relative decrease of the balance function widths in Delta eta and Delta phi, with centrality from the highest SPS to the LHC energy exhibits only small differences. This observation cannot be interpreted solely within the framework where the majority of the charge is produced at a later stage in the evolution of the heavy-ion collision. (C) 2013 CERN. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
|
|
| 4. |
- Tran, K. B., et al.
(författare)
-
The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736. ; 400:10352, s. 563-591
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
|
|
| 5. |
- Hay, S. I., et al.
(författare)
-
Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1260-1344
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Methods: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE difered from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. Findings: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs ofset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the fve lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. Interpretation: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs ofset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention eforts, and development assistance for health, including fnancial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
|
|
| 6. |
|
|
| 7. |
- Abelev, B., et al.
(författare)
-
D-S(+) meson production at central rapidity in proton-proton collisions at root s=7 TeV
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Physics Letters. Section B: Nuclear, Elementary Particle and High-Energy Physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0370-2693. ; 718:2, s. 279-294
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The P-T-differential inclusive production cross section of the prompt charm-strange meson D-s(+) in the rapidity range vertical bar y vertical bar < 0.5 was measured in proton-proton collisions at root s = 7 TeV at the LHC using the ALICE detector. The analysis was performed on a data sample of 2.98 x 10(8) events collected with a minimum-bias trigger. The corresponding integrated luminosity is L-int = 4.8 nb(-1). Reconstructing the decay D-s(+) -> phi pi(+) with phi -> K-K+, and its charge conjugate, about 480 D-s(+/-) mesons were counted, after selection cuts, in the transverse momentum range 2 < P-T < 12 GeV/c. The results are compared with predictions from models based on perturbative QCD. The ratios of the cross sections of four D meson species (namely D-0, D+, D*+ and D-s(+)) were determined both as a function of p(T) and integrated over p(T)after extrapolating to full p(T) range, together with the strangeness suppression factor in charm fragmentation. The obtained values are found to be compatible within uncertainties with those measured by other experiments in e(+)e(-), ep and pp interactions at various centre-of-mass energies. (C) 2012 CERN. Published by Elsevier By. All rights reserved.
|
|
| 8. |
- Abelev, B., et al.
(författare)
-
Multiplicity dependence of pion, kaon, proton and lambda production in p-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=5.02 TeV
- 2014
-
Ingår i: Physics Letters. Section B: Nuclear, Elementary Particle and High-Energy Physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0370-2693. ; 728, s. 25-38
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this Letter, comprehensive results on pi(+/-), K-+/-, K-S(0), p((p) over bar) and A((A) over bar) production at mid-rapidity (0 < y(CMS) < 0.5) in p-Pb collisions at root s(NN) = 5.02 TeV, measured by the ALICE detector at the LHC, are reported. The transverse momentum distributions exhibit a hardening as a function of event multiplicity, which is stronger for heavier particles. This behavior is similar to what has been observed in pp and Pb-Pb collisions at the LHC. The measured pr distributions are compared to d-Au, Au-Au and Pb-Pb results at lower energy and with predictions based on QCD-inspired and hydrodynamic models. (C) 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
|
|
| 9. |
- Abelev, B., et al.
(författare)
-
Multiplicity dependence of the average transverse momentum in pp, p-Pb, and Pb-Pb collisions at the LHC
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Physics Letters. Section B: Nuclear, Elementary Particle and High-Energy Physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0370-2693. ; 727:4-5, s. 371-380
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The average transverse momentum (p(T)) versus the charged-particle multiplicity N-ch was measured in p-Pb collisions at a collision energy per nucleon-nucleon root S-NN = 5.02 TeV and in pp collisions at collision energies of root s = 0.9, 2.76, and 7 TeV in the kinematic range 0.15 < p(T) < 10.0 GeV/c and vertical bar eta vertical bar < 0.3 with the ALICE apparatus at the LHC. These data are compared to results in Pb-Pb collisions at root S-NN = 2.76 TeV at similar charged-particle multiplicities. In pp and p-Pb collisions, a strong increase of (p(T)) with N-ch is observed, which is much stronger than that measured in Pb-Pb collisions. For pp collisions, this could be attributed, within a model of hadronizing strings, to multiple-parton interactions and to a final-state color reconnection mechanism. The data in p-Pb and Pb-Pb collisions cannot be described by an incoherent superposition of nucleon-nucleon collisions and pose a challenge to most of the event generators. (C) 2013 CERN. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
|
|
| 10. |
- Abelev, B., et al.
(författare)
-
Anisotropic flow of charged hadrons, pions and (anti-)protons measured at high transverse momentum in Pb-Pb collisions at root S-NN=2.76 TeV
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Physics Letters. Section B: Nuclear, Elementary Particle and High-Energy Physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0370-2693. ; 719:1-3, s. 18-28
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The elliptic, v(2), triangular, v(3), and quadrangular, v(4), azimuthal anisotropic flow coefficients are measured for unidentified charged particles, pions, and (anti-)protons in Pb-Pb collisions at root S-NN = 2.76 TeV with the ALICE detector at the Large Hadron Collider. Results obtained with the event plane and four-particle cumulant methods are reported for the pseudo-rapidity range vertical bar eta vertical bar < 0.8 at different collision centralities and as a function of transverse momentum, p(T), out to p(T) = 20 GeV/c. The observed non-zero elliptic and triangular flow depends only weakly on transverse momentum for p(T) > 8 GeV/c. The small p(T) dependence of the difference between elliptic flow results obtained from the event plane and four-particle cumulant methods suggests a common origin of flow fluctuations up to p(T) = 8 GeV/c. The magnitude of the (anti-)proton elliptic and triangular flow is larger than that of pions out to at least p(T) = 8 GeV/c indicating that the particle type dependence persists out to high p(T). (c) 2013 CERN. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
|
|
