| 1. |
- Schumacher, A. E., et al.
(author)
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Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
- 2024
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 403:10440, s. 1989-2056
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 2. |
- Bravo, L, et al.
(author)
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- 2021
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| 3. |
- Tabiri, S, et al.
(author)
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- 2021
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(author)
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Centrality dependence of particle production in p-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=5.02 TeV
- 2015
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In: Physical Review C (Nuclear Physics). - 0556-2813. ; 91:6
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We report measurements of the primary charged-particle pseudorapidity density and transverse momentum distributions in p-Pb collisions at root s(NN) = 5.02 TeV and investigate their correlation with experimental observables sensitive to the centrality of the collision. Centrality classes are defined by using different event-activity estimators, i.e., charged-particle multiplicities measured in three different pseudorapidity regions as well as the energy measured at beam rapidity (zero degree). The procedures to determine the centrality, quantified by the number of participants (N-part) or the number of nucleon-nucleon binary collisions (N-coll) are described. We show that, in contrast to Pb-Pb collisions, in p-Pb collisions large multiplicity fluctuations together with the small range of participants available generate a dynamical bias in centrality classes based on particle multiplicity. We propose to use the zero-degree energy, which we expect not to introduce a dynamical bias, as an alternative event-centrality estimator. Based on zero-degree energy-centrality classes, the N-part dependence of particle production is studied. Under the assumption that the multiplicity measured in the Pb-going rapidity region scales with the number of Pb participants, an approximate independence of the multiplicity per participating nucleon measured at mid-rapidity of the number of participating nucleons is observed. Furthermore, at high-pT the p-Pb spectra are found to be consistent with the pp spectra scaled by N-coll for all centrality classes. Our results represent valuable input for the study of the event-activity dependence of hard probes in p-Pb collisions and, hence, help to establish baselines for the interpretation of the Pb-Pb data.
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| 6. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(author)
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Centrality dependence of high-p(T) D meson suppression in Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=2.76 TeV
- 2015
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In: Journal of High Energy Physics. - 1029-8479. ; :11
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The nuclear modification factor, R-AA, of the prompt charmed mesons D-0, D+ and D*+, and their antiparticles, was measured with the ALICE detector in Pb-Pb collisions at a centre-of-mass energy root s(NN) = 2 : 76 TeV in two transverse momentum intervals, 5 < p(T) < 8 GeV/c and 8 < p(T) < 16 GeV/c, and in six collision centrality classes. The R-AA shows a maximum suppression of a factor of 5{6 in the 10% most central collisions. The suppression and its centrality dependence are compatible within uncertainties with those of charged pions. A comparison with the R-AA of non-prompt J/psi from B meson decays, measured by the CMS Collaboration, hints at a larger suppression of D mesons in the most central collisions.
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| 7. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(author)
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Centrality dependence of inclusive J/psi production in p-Pb collisions at root S-NN=5.02TeV
- 2015
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In: Journal of High Energy Physics. - 1029-8479. ; :11
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present a measurement of inclusive J/psi production in p-Pb collisions at root S-NN = 5.02 TeV as a function of the centrality of the collision, as estimated from the energy deposited in the Zero Degree Calorimeters. The measurement is performed with the ALICE detector down to zero transverse momentum, p(T), in the backward (-4.46 < y(cms) < -2.96) and forward (2.03 < y(cms) < 3.53) rapidity intervals in the dimuon decay channel and in the mid-rapidity region (-1.37 < y(cms) < 0.43) in the dielectron decay channel. The backward and forward rapidity intervals correspond to the Pb-going and p-going direction, respectively. The p(T)-differential J/psi production cross section at backward and forward rapidity is measured for several centrality classes, together with the corresponding average p(T) and p(T)(2) values. The nuclear modification factor is presented as a function of centrality for the three rapidity intervals, and as a function of p(T) for several centrality classes at backward and forward rapidity. At mid-and forward rapidity, the J/psi yield is suppressed up to 40% compared to that in pp interactions scaled by the number of binary collisions. The degree of suppression increases towards central p-Pb collisions at forward rapidity, and with decreasing p(T) of the J/psi. At backward rapidity, the nuclear modification factor is compatible with unity within the total uncertainties, with an increasing trend from peripheral to central p-Pb collisions.
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| 8. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(author)
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Coherent psi (2S) photo-production in ultra-peripheral Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=2.76TeV
- 2015
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In: Physics Letters. Section B: Nuclear, Elementary Particle and High-Energy Physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0370-2693. ; 751, s. 358-370
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We have performed the first measurement of the coherent psi(2S) photo-production cross section in ultraperipheral Pb-Pb collisions at the LHC. This charmonium excited state is reconstructed via the psi(2S) -> l(+)l(-) and ->(2S) -> J/psi pi(+)pi(-) decays, where the J/psi decays into two leptons. The analysis is based on an event sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of about 22 mu b(-1). The cross section for coherent psi(2S) production in the rapidity interval -0.9 < y < 0.9is d sigma(coh)(psi(2S))/dy = 0.83 +/- 0.19 (stat+syst) mb. The psi(2S) to J/psi coherent cross section ratio is 0.34(-0.07)(+0.08)(stat+syst). The obtained results are compared to predictions from theoretical models. (C) 2015 CERN for the benefit of the ALICE Collaboration. Published by Elsevier B.V.
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| 9. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(author)
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Coherent rho(0) photoproduction in ultra-peripheral Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=2.76 TeV
- 2015
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In: Journal of High Energy Physics. - 1029-8479. ; :9
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We report the first measurement at the LHC of coherent photoproduction of rho(0) mesons in ultra-peripheral Pb-Pb collisions. The invariant mass and transverse momentum distributions for rho(0) production are studied in the pi(+)pi(-) decay channel at mid-rapidity. The production cross section in the rapidity range vertical bar y vertical bar < 0.5 is found to be d sigma/dy = 425 +/- 10 (stat.) (+42)(-50) (sys.) mb. Coherent rho(0) production is studied with and without requirement of nuclear breakup, and the fractional yields for various breakup scenarios are presented. The results are compared with those from lower energies and with model predictions.
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| 10. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(author)
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Forward-backward multiplicity correlations in pp collisions at root s=0.9, 2.76 and 7 TeV
- 2015
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In: Journal of High Energy Physics. - 1029-8479. ; :5
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The strength of forward-backward (FB) multiplicity correlations is measured by the ALICE detector in proton-proton (pp) collisions at = 0.9, 2.76 and 7 TeV. The measurement is performed in the central pseudorapidity region (|eta| < 0.8) for the transverse momentum p (T) > 0.3 GeV/c. Two separate pseudorapidity windows of width (delta eta) ranging from 0.2 to 0.8 are chosen symmetrically around eta = 0. The multiplicity correlation strength (b (corr)) is studied as a function of the pseudorapidity gap (eta (gap)) between the two windows as well as the width of these windows. The correlation strength is found to decrease with increasing eta (gap) and shows a non-linear increase with delta eta. A sizable increase of the correlation strength with the collision energy, which cannot be explained exclusively by the increase of the mean multiplicity inside the windows, is observed. The correlation coefficient is also measured for multiplicities in different configurations of two azimuthal sectors selected within the symmetric FB eta-windows. Two different contributions, the short-range (SR) and the long-range (LR), are observed. The energy dependence of b (corr) is found to be weak for the SR component while it is strong for the LR component. Moreover, the correlation coefficient is studied for particles belonging to various transverse momentum intervals chosen to have the same mean multiplicity. Both SR and LR contributions to b (corr) are found to increase with p (T) in this case. Results are compared to PYTHIA and PHOJET event generators and to a string-based phenomenological model. The observed dependencies of b (corr) add new constraints on phenomenological models.
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