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| 3. |
- Lossow, S., et al.
(författare)
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The SPARC water vapour assessment II: comparison of annual, semi-annual and quasi-biennial variations in stratospheric and lower mesospheric water vapour observed from satellites
- 2017
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Measurement Techniques. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1867-1381 .- 1867-8548. ; 10:3, s. 1111-1137
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In the framework of the second SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate) water vapour assessment (WAVAS-II), the amplitudes and phases of the annual, semi-annual and quasi-biennial variation in stratospheric and lower mesospheric water were compared using 30 data sets from 13 different satellite instruments. These comparisons aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the typical uncertainties in the observational database which can be considered in subsequent observational and modelling studies. For the amplitudes, a good agreement of their latitude and altitude distribution was found. Quantitatively there were differences in particular at high latitudes, close to the tropopause and in the lower mesosphere. In these regions, the standard deviation over all data sets typically exceeded 0.2 ppmv for the annual variation and 0.1 ppmv for the semi-annual and quasi-biennial variation. For the phase, larger differences between the data sets were found in the lower mesosphere. Generally the smallest phase uncertainties can be observed in regions where the amplitude of the variability is large. The standard deviations of the phases for all data sets were typically smaller than a month for the annual and semi-annual variation and smaller than 5 months for the quasi-biennial variation. The amplitude and phase differences among the data sets are caused by a combination of factors. In general, differences in the temporal variation of systematic errors and in the observational sampling play a dominant role. In addition, differences in the vertical resolution of the data, the considered time periods and influences of clouds, aerosols as well as non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) effects cause differences between the individual data sets. .1 Symposia of COSPAR Scientific Commission A, held during the Thirty-first COSPAR Scientific Assembly
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| 11. |
- Khosrawi, F., et al.
(författare)
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Sensitivity of polar stratospheric cloud formation to changes in water vapour and temperature
- 2016
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 16:1, s. 101-121
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- More than a decade ago it was suggested that a cooling of stratospheric temperatures by 1 K or an increase of 1 ppmv of stratospheric water vapour could promote denitrification, the permanent removal of nitrogen species from the stratosphere by solid polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) particles. In fact, during the two Arctic winters 2009/10 and 2010/11 the strongest denitrification in the recent decade was observed. Sensitivity studies along air parcel trajectories are performed to test how a future stratospheric water vapour (H2O) increase of 1 ppmv or a temperature decrease of 1K would affect PSC formation. We perform our study based on measurements made during the Arctic winter 2010/11. Air parcel trajectories were calculated 6 days backward in time based on PSCs detected by CALIPSO (Cloud Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder satellite observations). The sensitivity study was performed on single trajectories as well as on a trajectory ensemble. The sensitivity study shows a clear prolongation of the potential for PSC formation and PSC existence when the temperature in the stratosphere is decreased by 1K and water vapour is increased by 1 ppmv. Based on 15 years of satellite measurements (20002014) from UARS/HALOE, Envisat/MIPAS, Odin/SMR, Aura/MLS, Envisat/SCIAMACHY and SCISAT/ACE-FTS it is further investigated if there is a decrease in temperature and/or increase of water vapour (H2O) observed in the polar regions similar to that observed at midlatitudes and in the tropics. Performing linear regression analyses we derive from the Envisat/MIPAS (2002-2012) and Aura/MLS (2004-2014) observations predominantly positive changes in the potential temperature range 350 to 1000 K. The linear changes in water vapour derived from Envisat/MIPAS observations are largely insignificant, while those from Aura/MLS are mostly significant. For the temperature neither of the two instruments indicate any significant changes. Given the strong inter-annual variation observed in water vapour and particular temperature the severe denitrification observed in 2010/11 cannot be directly related to any changes in water vapour and temperature since the millennium. However, the observations indicate a clear correlation between cold winters and enhanced water vapour mixing ratios. This indicates a connection between dynamical and radiative processes that govern water vapour and temperature in the Arctic lower stratosphere.
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| 12. |
- Khosrawi, F., et al.
(författare)
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Sensitivity of polar stratospheric cloud formation to changes in water vapour and temperature
- 2015
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7375 .- 1680-7367. ; 15:13, s. 17743-17796
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- More than a decade ago it was suggested that a cooling of stratospheric temperatures by 1 K or an increase of 1 ppmv of stratospheric water vapour could promote denitrification, the permanent removal of nitrogen species from the stratosphere by solid polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) particles. In fact, during the two Arctic winters 2009/10 and 2010/11 the strongest denitrification in the recent decade was observed. Sensitivity studies along air parcel trajectories are performed to test how a future stratospheric water vapour (H 2 O) increase of 1 ppmv or a temperature decrease of 1 K would affect PSC formation. We perform our study based on measurements made during the Arctic winter 2010/11. Air parcel trajectories were calculated 6 days backward in time based on PSCs detected by CALIPSO (Cloud Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder satellite observations). The sensitivity study was performed on single trajectories as well as on a trajectory ensemble. The sensitivity study shows a clear prolongation of the potential for PSC formation and PSC existence when the temperature in the stratosphere is decreased by 1 K and water vapour is increased by 1 ppmv. Based on 15 years of satellite measurements (2000-2014) from UARS/HALOE, Envisat/MIPAS, Odin/SMR, Aura/MLS, Envisat/SCIAMACHY and SCISAT/ACE-FTS it is further investigated if there is a decrease in temperature and/or increase of water vapour (H 2 O) observed in the polar regions similar to that observed at midlatitudes and in the tropics. Although in the polar regions no significant trend is found in the lower stratosphere, we found from the observations a correlation between cold winters and enhanced water vapour mixing ratios.
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| 13. |
- Khosrawi, F., et al.
(författare)
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The SPARC water vapour assessment II: Comparison of stratospheric and lower mesospheric water vapour time series observed from satellites
- 2018
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Measurement Techniques. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1867-1381 .- 1867-8548. ; 11:7, s. 4435-4463
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Time series of stratospheric and lower mesospheric water vapour using 33 data sets from 15 different satellite instruments were compared in the framework of the second SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate) water vapour assessment (WAVAS-II). This comparison aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the typical uncertainties in the observational database that can be considered in the future in observational and modelling studies, e.g addressing stratospheric water vapour trends. The time series comparisons are presented for the three latitude bands, the Antarctic (80°-70°S), the tropics (15°S-15°N) and the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes (50°-60°N) at four different altitudes (0.1, 3, 10 and 80hPa) covering the stratosphere and lower mesosphere. The combined temporal coverage of observations from the 15 satellite instruments allowed the consideration of the time period 1986-2014. In addition to the qualitative comparison of the time series, the agreement of the data sets is assessed quantitatively in the form of the spread (i.e. the difference between the maximum and minimum volume mixing ratios among the data sets), the (Pearson) correlation coefficient and the drift (i.e. linear changes of the difference between time series over time). Generally, good agreement between the time series was found in the middle stratosphere while larger differences were found in the lower mesosphere and near the tropopause. Concerning the latitude bands, the largest differences were found in the Antarctic while the best agreement was found for the tropics. From our assessment we find that most data sets can be considered in future observational and modelling studies, e.g. addressing stratospheric and lower mesospheric water vapour variability and trends, if data set specific characteristics (e.g. drift) and restrictions (e.g. temporal and spatial coverage) are taken into account.
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| 14. |
- Lossow, Stefan, 1977, et al.
(författare)
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The SPARC water vapour assessment II: Profile-to-profile comparisons of stratospheric and lower mesospheric water vapour data sets obtained from satellites
- 2019
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Measurement Techniques. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1867-1381 .- 1867-8548. ; 12:5, s. 2693-2732
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Within the framework of the second SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate) water vapour assessment (WAVAS-II), profile-to-profile comparisons of stratospheric and lower mesospheric water vapour were performed by considering 33 data sets derived from satellite observations of 15 different instruments. These comparisons aimed to provide a picture of the typical biases and drifts in the observational database and to identify data-set-specific problems. The observational database typically exhibits the largest biases below 70 hPa, both in absolute and relative terms. The smallest biases are often found between 50 and 5 hPa. Typically, they range from 0.25 to 0.5 ppmv (5 % to 10 %) in this altitude region, based on the 50 % percentile over the different comparison results. Higher up, the biases increase with altitude overall but this general behaviour is accompanied by considerable variations. Characteristic values vary between 0.3 and 1 ppmv (4 % to 20 %). Obvious data-set-specific bias issues are found for a number of data sets. In our work we performed a drift analysis for data sets overlapping for a period of at least 36 months. This assessment shows a wide range of drifts among the different data sets that are statistically significant at the 2 σ uncertainty level. In general, the smallest drifts are found in the altitude range between about 30 and 10 hPa. Histograms considering results from all altitudes indicate the largest occurrence for drifts between 0.05 and 0.3 ppmv decade-1. Comparisons of our drift estimates to those derived from comparisons of zonal mean time series only exhibit statistically significant differences in slightly more than 3 % of the comparisons. Hence, drift estimates from profile-to-profile and zonal mean time series comparisons are largely interchangeable. As for the biases, a number of data sets exhibit prominent drift issues. In our analyses we found that the large number of MIPAS data sets included in the assessment affects our general results as well as the bias summaries we provide for the individual data sets. This is because these data sets exhibit a relative similarity with respect to the remaining data sets, despite the fact that they are based on different measurement modes and different processors implementing different retrieval choices. Because of that, we have by default considered an aggregation of the comparison results obtained from MIPAS data sets. Results without this aggregation are provided on multiple occasions to characterise the effects due to the numerous MIPAS data sets. Among other effects, they cause a reduction of the typical biases in the observational database.
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| 15. |
- Rahpoe, N., et al.
(författare)
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Relative drifts and biases between six ozone limb satellite measurements from the last decade
- 2015
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Measurement Techniques. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1867-1381 .- 1867-8548. ; 8:10, s. 4369-4381
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As part of European Space Agency's (ESA) climate change initiative, high vertical resolution ozone profiles from three instruments all aboard ESA's Envisat (GOMOS, MIPAS, SCIAMACHY) and ESA's third party missions (OSIRIS, SMR, ACE-FTS) are to be combined in order to create an essential climate variable data record for the last decade. A prerequisite before combining data is the examination of differences and drifts between the data sets. In this paper, we present a detailed analysis of ozone profile differences based on pairwise collocated measurements, including the evolution of the differences with time. Such a diagnosis is helpful to identify strengths and weaknesses of each data set that may vary in time and introduce uncertainties in long-term trend estimates. The analysis reveals that the relative drift between the sensors is not statistically significant for most pairs of instruments. The relative drift values can be used to estimate the added uncertainty in physical trends. The added drift uncertainty is estimated at about 3 % decade-1 (1s). Larger differences and variability in the differences are found in the lowermost stratosphere (below 20 km) and in the mesosphere.
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| 16. |
- Alonso-Blanco, Carlos, et al.
(författare)
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1,135 Genomes Reveal the Global Pattern of Polymorphism in Arabidopsis thaliana
- 2016
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Ingår i: Cell. - : Elsevier. - 0092-8674 .- 1097-4172. ; 166:2, s. 481-491
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Arabidopsis thaliana serves as a model organism for the study of fundamental physiological, cellular, and molecular processes. It has also greatly advanced our understanding of intraspecific genome variation. We present a detailed map of variation in 1,135 high-quality re-sequenced natural inbred lines representing the native Eurasian and North African range and recently colonized North America. We identify relict populations that continue to inhabit ancestral habitats, primarily in the Iberian Peninsula. They have mixed with a lineage that has spread to northern latitudes from an unknown glacial refugium and is now found in a much broader spectrum of habitats. Insights into the history of the species and the fine-scale distribution of genetic diversity provide the basis for full exploitation of A. thaliana natural variation through integration of genomes and epigenomes with molecular and non-molecular phenotypes.
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| 17. |
- Boonstra, Wiebren J., et al.
(författare)
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What are the major global threats and impacts in marine environments? Investigating the contours of a shared perception among marine scientists from the bottom-up.
- 2015
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Ingår i: Marine Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0308-597X .- 1872-9460. ; 60, s. 197-201
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Marine scientists broadly agree on which major processes influence the sustainability of marine environments worldwide. Recent studies argue that such shared perceptions crucially shape scientific agendas and are subject to a confirmation bias. Based on these findings a more explicit engagement with scientists' (shared) perceptions of global change in marine environments is called for. This paper takes stock of the shared understanding in marine science of the most pertinent, worldwide threats and impacts that currently affect marine environments. Using results from an email survey among leading academics in marine science this article explores if a shared research agenda in relation to global change in marine environments exists. The analysis demonstrates that marine scientists across disciplines are largely in agreement on some common features of global marine change. Nevertheless, the analysis also highlights where natural and social scientists diverge in their assessment. The article ends discussing what these findings imply for further improvement of interdisciplinary marine science.
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| 18. |
- Kawakatsu, Taiji, et al.
(författare)
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Epigenomic Diversity in a Global Collection of Arabidopsis thaliana Accessions
- 2016
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Ingår i: Cell. - : Elsevier. - 0092-8674 .- 1097-4172. ; 166:2, s. 492-505
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The epigenome orchestrates genome accessibility, functionality, and three-dimensional structure. Because epigenetic variation can impact transcription and thus phenotypes, it may contribute to adaptation. Here, we report 1,107 high-quality single-base resolution methylomes and 1,203 transcriptomes from the 1001 Genomes collection of Arabidopsis thaliana. Although the genetic basis of methylation variation is highly complex, geographic origin is a major predictor of genome-wide DNA methylation levels and of altered gene expression caused by epialleles. Comparison to cistrome and epicistrome datasets identifies associations between transcription factor binding sites, methylation, nucleotide variation, and co-expression modules. Physical maps for nine of the most diverse genomes reveal how transposons and other structural variants shape the epigenome, with dramatic effects on immunity genes. The 1001 Epigenomes Project provides a comprehensive resource for understanding how variation in DNA methylation contributes to molecular and non-molecular phenotypes in natural populations of the most studied model plant.
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| 19. |
- Liemohn, Michael W., et al.
(författare)
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Model Evaluation Guidelines for Geomagnetic Index Predictions
- 2018
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Ingår i: Space Weather. - 1542-7390. ; 16:12, s. 2079-2102
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Geomagnetic indices are convenient quantities that distill the complicated physics of some region or aspect of near‐Earth space into a single parameter. Most of the best‐known indices are calculated from ground‐based magnetometer data sets, such as Dst, SYM‐H, Kp, AE, AL, and PC. Many models have been created that predict the values of these indices, often using solar wind measurements upstream from Earth as the input variables to the calculation. This document reviews the current state of models that predict geomagnetic indices and the methods used to assess their ability to reproduce the target index time series. These existing methods are synthesized into a baseline collection of metrics for benchmarking a new or updated geomagnetic index prediction model. These methods fall into two categories: (1) fit performance metrics such as root‐mean‐square error and mean absolute error that are applied to a time series comparison of model output and observations and (2) event detection performance metrics such as Heidke Skill Score and probability of detection that are derived from a contingency table that compares model and observation values exceeding (or not) a threshold value. A few examples of codes being used with this set of metrics are presented, and other aspects of metrics assessment best practices, limitations, and uncertainties are discussed, including several caveats to consider when using geomagnetic indices.
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| 20. |
- Novikova, P. Y., et al.
(författare)
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Sequencing of the genus Arabidopsis identifies a complex history of nonbifurcating speciation and abundant trans-specific polymorphism
- 2016
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 48:9, s. 1077-1082
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The notion of species as reproductively isolated units related through a bifurcating tree implies that gene trees should generally agree with the species tree and that sister taxa should not share polymorphisms unless they diverged recently and should be equally closely related to outgroups. It is now possible to evaluate this model systematically. We sequenced multiple individuals from 27 described taxa representing the entire Arabidopsis genus. Cluster analysis identified seven groups, corresponding to described species that capture the structure of the genus. However, at the level of gene trees, only the separation of Arabidopsis thaliana from the remaining species was universally supported, and, overall, the amount of shared polymorphism demonstrated that reproductive isolation was considerably more recent than the estimated divergence times. We uncovered multiple cases of past gene flow that contradict a bifurcating species tree. Finally, we showed that the pattern of divergence differs between gene ontologies, suggesting a role for selection. © 2016 Nature America, Inc. All rights reserved.
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| 21. |
- Pedersen, M. W., et al.
(författare)
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Trends in marine climate change research in the Nordic region since the first IPCC report
- 2016
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 134:1-2, s. 147-161
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Oceans are exposed to anthropogenic climate change shifting marine systems toward potential instabilities. The physical, biological and social implications of such shifts can be assessed within individual scientific disciplines, but can only be fully understood by combining knowledge and expertise across disciplines. For climate change related problems these research directions have been well-established since the publication of the first IPCC report in 1990, however it is not well-documented to what extent these directions are reflected in published research. Focusing on the Nordic region, we evaluated the development of climate change related marine science by quantifying trends in number of publications, disciplinarity, and scientific focus of 1362 research articles published between 1990 and 2011. Our analysis showed a faster increase in publications within climate change related marine science than in general marine science indicating a growing prioritisation of research with a climate change focus. The composition of scientific disciplines producing climate change related publications, which initially was dominated by physical sciences, shifted toward a distribution with almost even representation of physical and biological sciences with social sciences constituting a minor constant proportion. These trends suggest that the predominantly model-based directions of the IPCC have favoured the more quantitatively oriented natural sciences rather than the qualitative traditions of social sciences. In addition, despite being an often declared prerequisite to successful climate science, we found surprisingly limited progress in implementing interdisciplinary research indicating that further initiatives nurturing scientific interactions are required.
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| 22. |
- Welling, D. T., et al.
(författare)
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Recommendations for Next-Generation Ground Magnetic Perturbation Validation
- 2018
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Ingår i: Space Weather. - 1542-7390. ; 16:12, s. 1912-1920
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Data-model validation of ground magnetic perturbation forecasts, specifically of the time rate of change of surface magnetic field, dB/dt, is a critical task for model development and for mitigation of geomagnetically induced current effects. While a current, community-accepted standard for dB/dt validation exists (Pulkkinen et al., 2013), it has several limitations that prevent more complete understanding of model capability. This work presents recommendations from the International Forum for Space Weather Capabilities Assessment Ground Magnetic Perturbation Working Team for creating a next-generation validation suite. Four recommendations are made to address the existing suite: greatly expand the number of ground observatories used, expand the number of events included in the suite from six to eight, generate metrics as a function of magnetic local time, and generate metrics as a function of activity type. For each of these, implementation details are explored. Limitations and future considerations are also discussed.
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