Application of a power-exponential function-based model to mortality rates forecasting

• There are many models for mortality rates. A well-known problem that complicates modeling of human mortality rates is the “accident hump” occurring in early adulthood. Here, two models of mortality rate based on power-exponential functions are presented and compared to a few other models. The models will be fitted to known data of measured death rates from several different countries using numerical techniques for curve-fitting with the nonlinear least-squares method. The properties of the model with respect to forecasting with the Lee–Carter method will be discussed.

Subject headings

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Matematik -- Sannolikhetsteori och statistik (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Mathematics -- Probability Theory and Statistics (hsv//eng)

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Matematik -- Beräkningsmatematik (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Mathematics -- Computational Mathematics (hsv//eng)

Keyword

mortality rates modeling

power-exponential function

nonlinear curve fitting

Lee-Carter method

Mathematics/Applied Mathematics

matematik/tillämpad matematik

Publication and Content Type

ref (subject category)

art (subject category)