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Self-amplified Amaz...
Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks
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Zemp, Delphine Clara (author)
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Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich (author)
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Barbosa, Henrique M. J. (author)
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Hirota, Marina (author)
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Montade, Vincent (author)
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Sampaio, Gilvan (author)
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Staal, Arie (author)
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- Wang-Erlandsson, Lan (author)
- Stockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands
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Rammig, Anja (author)
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2017-03-13
- 2017
- English.
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In: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 8
- Related links:
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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https://www.nature.c...
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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Abstract
Subject headings
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- Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation-atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complexnet-work approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10-13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest.
Subject headings
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)
Publication and Content Type
- ref (subject category)
- art (subject category)
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