Comparison of prognostic models to predict the occurrence of colorectal cancer in asymptomatic individuals: a systematic literature review and external validation in the EPIC and UK Biobank prospective cohort studies

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Fältnamn	Indikatorer	Metadata
000		07499naa a2200949 4500
001		oai:DiVA.org:umu-146375
003		SwePub
008		180406s2019 \| \|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|\|000 \|\|eng\|
009		oai:lup.lub.lu.se:9b52bdcc-ae92-4363-abeb-5fbfa89f8fc6
024	7	a https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-1463752 URI
024	7	a https://doi.org/10.1136/gutjnl-2017-3157302 DOI
024	7	a https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/9b52bdcc-ae92-4363-abeb-5fbfa89f8fc62 URI
040		a (SwePub)umud (SwePub)lu
041		a engb eng
042		9 SwePub
072	7	a ref2 swepub-contenttype
072	7	a art2 swepub-publicationtype
100	1	a Smith, Toddu Imperial College London4 aut
245	1 0	a Comparison of prognostic models to predict the occurrence of colorectal cancer in asymptomatic individuals :b a systematic literature review and external validation in the EPIC and UK Biobank prospective cohort studies
264		c 2018-04-03
264	1	b BMJ Publishing Group Ltd,c 2019
338		a electronic2 rdacarrier
520		a OBJECTIVE: To systematically identify and validate published colorectal cancer risk prediction models that do not require invasive testing in two large population-based prospective cohorts.DESIGN: Models were identified through an update of a published systematic review and validated in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and the UK Biobank. The performance of the models to predict the occurrence of colorectal cancer within 5 or 10 years after study enrolment was assessed by discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (plots of observed vs predicted probability).RESULTS: The systematic review and its update identified 16 models from 8 publications (8 colorectal, 5 colon and 3 rectal). The number of participants included in each model validation ranged from 41 587 to 396 515, and the number of cases ranged from 115 to 1781. Eligible and ineligible participants across the models were largely comparable. Calibration of the models, where assessable, was very good and further improved by recalibration. The C-statistics of the models were largely similar between validation cohorts with the highest values achieved being 0.70 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.72) in the UK Biobank and 0.71 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.74) in EPIC.CONCLUSION: Several of these non-invasive models exhibited good calibration and discrimination within both external validation populations and are therefore potentially suitable candidates for the facilitation of risk stratification in population-based colorectal screening programmes. Future work should both evaluate this potential, through modelling and impact studies, and ascertain if further enhancement in their performance can be obtained.
650	7	a MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAPx Hälsovetenskapx Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi0 (SwePub)303022 hsv//swe
650	7	a MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCESx Health Sciencesx Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology0 (SwePub)303022 hsv//eng
650	7	a MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAPx Klinisk medicinx Cancer och onkologi0 (SwePub)302032 hsv//swe
650	7	a MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCESx Clinical Medicinex Cancer and Oncology0 (SwePub)302032 hsv//eng
653		a cancer prevention
653		a colorectal cancer
653		a colorectal cancer screening
653		a epidemiology
653		a medical statistics
653		a cancer prevention
653		a colorectal cancer
653		a colorectal cancer screening
653		a epidemiology
653		a medical statistics
700	1	a Muller, David C.u Imperial College London4 aut
700	1	a Moons, Karel G. M.u University Medical Center Utrecht4 aut
700	1	a Cross, Amanda J.u Imperial College London,International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization4 aut
700	1	a Johansson, Mattiasu International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization4 aut
700	1	a Ferrari, Pietrou International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization4 aut
700	1	a Fagherazzi, Guyu Centre for Research in Epidemiology and Population Health (CESP)4 aut
700	1	a Peeters, Petra H. M.u University Medical Center Utrecht4 aut
700	1	a Severi, Gianlucau Centre for Research in Epidemiology and Population Health (CESP)4 aut
700	1	a Hüsing, Anikau German Cancer Research Centre4 aut
700	1	a Kaaks, Rudolfu German Cancer Research Centre4 aut
700	1	a Tjonneland, Anneu Danish Cancer Society4 aut
700	1	a Olsen, Anjau Danish Cancer Society4 aut
700	1	a Overvad, Kimu Aarhus University4 aut
700	1	a Bonet, Catalinau Bellvitge University Hospital-IDIBELL4 aut
700	1	a Rodriguez-Barranco, Miguelu Andalusian School Of Public Health (EASP)4 aut
700	1	a Huerta, Jose Mariau CIBER Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP)4 aut
700	1	a Barricarte Gurrea, Aureliou CIBER Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP)4 aut
700	1	a Bradbury, Kathryn E.u University of Oxford4 aut
700	1	a Trichopoulou, Antoniau Hellenic Health Foundation, Athens4 aut
700	1	a Bamia, Christinau Hellenic Health Foundation, Athens4 aut
700	1	a Orfanos, Philipposu National and Kapodistrian University of Athens4 aut
700	1	a Palli, Domenicou Cancer Research and Prevention Institute (ISPO)4 aut
700	1	a Pala, Valeriau Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori4 aut
700	1	a Vineis, Paolou Italian Institute for Genomic Medicine (IIGM)4 aut
700	1	a Bueno-de-Mesquita, Basu National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM)4 aut
700	1	a Ohlsson, Bodilu Lund University,Lunds universitet,Internmedicin - epidemiologi,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Internal Medicine - Epidemiology,Lund University Research Groups4 aut0 (Swepub:lu)kir-boh
700	1	a Harlid, Sophiau Umeå University,Umeå universitet,Onkologi4 aut0 (Swepub:lu)mikr-sha
700	1	a van Guelpen, Bethanyu Umeå University,Umeå universitet,Onkologi4 aut0 (Swepub:umu)beyvan99
700	1	a Skeie, Guriu UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø4 aut
700	1	a Weiderpass, Elisabeteu Cancer Registry of Norway, Institute of Population-Based Cancer Research4 aut
700	1	a Jenab, Mazda4 aut
700	1	a Murphy, Neilu International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization4 aut
700	1	a Riboli, Eliou Imperial College London4 aut
700	1	a Gunter, Marc J.u International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization4 aut
700	1	a Aleksandrova, Krasimira Jekovau German Institute of Human Nutrition4 aut
700	1	a Tzoulaki, Ioannau Imperial College London4 aut
710	2	a Imperial College Londonb University Medical Center Utrecht4 org
773	0	t Gutd : BMJ Publishing Group Ltdg 68, s. 672-683q 68<672-683x 0017-5749x 1468-3288
856	4	u https://doi.org/10.1136/gutjnl-2017-315730y Fulltext
856	4	u https://umu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1195770/FULLTEXT02.pdfx primaryx Raw objecty fulltext:print
856	4	u https://gut.bmj.com/content/gutjnl/68/4/672.full.pdf
856	4	u http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/gutjnl-2017-315730x freey FULLTEXT
856	4 8	u https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-146375
856	4 8	u https://doi.org/10.1136/gutjnl-2017-315730
856	4 8	u https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/9b52bdcc-ae92-4363-abeb-5fbfa89f8fc6

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