Search: onr:"swepub:oai:DiVA.org:umu-220856" >
Promoting healthy p...
Promoting healthy populations as a pandemic preparedness strategy : a simulation study from Mexico
-
- Johnson, Rob (author)
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis & WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
-
- Carnalla, Martha (author)
- Centro de Salud en Investigación Poblacional, Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Cuernavaca, Mexico
-
- Basto-Abreu, Ana (author)
- Centro de Salud en Investigación Poblacional, Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Cuernavaca, Mexico
-
show more...
-
- Haw, David (author)
- Department of Mathematical Sciences and Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, United Kingdom
-
- Morgenstern, Christian (author)
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis & WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
-
- Doohan, Patrick (author)
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis & WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
-
- Forchini, Giovanni (author)
- Umeå universitet,Handelshögskolan vid Umeå universitet,MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis & WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
-
- Hauck, Katharina D. (author)
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis & WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
-
- Barrientos-Gutiérrez, Tonatiuh (author)
- Centro de Salud en Investigación Poblacional, Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Cuernavaca, Mexico
-
show less...
-
(creator_code:org_t)
- Elsevier, 2024
- 2024
- English.
-
In: Lancet Regional Health - Americas. - : Elsevier. - 2667-193X. ; 30
- Related links:
-
https://doi.org/10.1...
-
show more...
-
https://umu.diva-por... (primary) (Raw object)
-
https://urn.kb.se/re...
-
https://doi.org/10.1...
-
show less...
Abstract
Subject headings
Close
- Background: The underlying health status of populations was a major determinant of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly obesity prevalence. Mexico was one of the most severely affected countries during the COVID-19 pandemic and its obesity prevalence is among the highest in the world. It is unknown by how much the COVID-19 burden could have been reduced if systemic actions had been implemented to reduce excess weight in Mexico before the onset of the pandemic.Methods: Using a dynamic epidemic model based on nationwide data, we compare actual deaths with those under hypothetical scenarios assuming a lower body mass index in the Mexican population, as observed historically. We also model the number of deaths that would have been averted due to earlier implementation of front-of-pack warning labels or due to increases in taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages and non-essential high-energy foods in Mexico.Findings: We estimate that 52.5% (95% prediction interval (PI) 43.2, 61.6%) of COVID-19 deaths were attributable to obesity for adults aged 20–64 and 23.8% (95% PI 18.7, 29.1%) for those aged 65 and over. Had the population BMI distribution remained as it was in 2000, 2006, or 2012, COVID-19 deaths would have been reduced by an expected 20.6% (95% PI 16.9, 24.6%), 9.9% (95% PI 7.3, 12.9%), or 6.9% (95% PI 4.5, 9.5%), respectively. If the food-labelling intervention introduced in 2020 had been introduced in 2018, an expected 6.2% (95% PI 5.2, 7.3%) of COVID-19 deaths would have been averted. If taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages and high-energy foods had been doubled, trebled, or quadrupled in 2018, COVID-19 deaths would have been reduced by an expected 4.1% (95% PI 2.5, 5.7%), 7.9% (95% PI 4.9, 11.0%), or 11.6% (95% PI 7.3, 15.8%), respectively.Interpretation: Public health interventions targeting underlying population health, including non-communicable chronic diseases, is a promising line of action for pandemic preparedness that should be included in all pandemic plans.
Subject headings
- MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP -- Hälsovetenskap -- Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi (hsv//swe)
- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES -- Health Sciences -- Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- BMI
- COVID-19
- Epidemic response plan
- Obesity
- Pandemic preparedness
- Population health
Publication and Content Type
- ref (subject category)
- art (subject category)
Find in a library
To the university's database