Sökning: onr:"swepub:oai:DiVA.org:umu-88057" > Impact of climate c...
Fältnamn | Indikatorer | Metadata |
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000 | 03543naa a2200397 4500 | |
001 | oai:DiVA.org:umu-88057 | |
003 | SwePub | |
008 | 140422s2014 | |||||||||||000 ||eng| | |
024 | 7 | a https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-880572 URI |
024 | 7 | a https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.13020891112 DOI |
040 | a (SwePub)umu | |
041 | a engb eng | |
042 | 9 SwePub | |
072 | 7 | a ref2 swepub-contenttype |
072 | 7 | a art2 swepub-publicationtype |
100 | 1 | a Caminade, Cyril4 aut |
245 | 1 0 | a Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution |
264 | c 2014-02-03 | |
264 | 1 | b Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,c 2014 |
338 | a print2 rdacarrier | |
520 | a Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution. | |
650 | 7 | a MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAPx Hälsovetenskapx Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi0 (SwePub)303022 hsv//swe |
650 | 7 | a MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCESx Health Sciencesx Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology0 (SwePub)303022 hsv//eng |
700 | 1 | a Kovats, Sari4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Rocklöv, Joacimu Umeå universitet,Epidemiologi och global hälsa4 aut0 (Swepub:umu)joro0003 |
700 | 1 | a Tompkins, Adrian M4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Morse, Andrew P4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Colón-González, Felipe J4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Stenlund, Hans4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Martens, Pim4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Lloyd, Simon J4 aut |
710 | 2 | a Umeå universitetb Epidemiologi och global hälsa4 org |
773 | 0 | t Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of Americad : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciencesg 111:9, s. 3286-3291q 111:9<3286-3291x 0027-8424x 1091-6490 |
856 | 4 | u https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/111/9/3286.full.pdf |
856 | 4 8 | u https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-88057 |
856 | 4 8 | u https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1302089111 |
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