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Assessing glacier r...
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Gao, HongkaiEast China Normal University
(författare)
Assessing glacier retreat and its impact on water resources in a headwater of Yangtze River based on CMIP6 projections
- Artikel/kapitelEngelska2021
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LIBRIS-ID:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:90d5fb9d-c9ec-4331-af46-45a7eb115086
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https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/90d5fb9d-c9ec-4331-af46-45a7eb115086URI
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142774DOI
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Språk:engelska
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Sammanfattning på:engelska
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Ämneskategori:art swepub-publicationtype
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Ämneskategori:ref swepub-contenttype
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Glacier retreat caused by global warming alters the hydrological regime and poses far-reaching challenges to water resources and nature conservation of the headwater of Yangtze River, and its vast downstream regions with dense population. However, there is still lack of a robust modeling framework of the “climate-glacier-streamflow” in this water tower region, to project the future changes of glacier mass balance, glacier geometry, and the consequent impacts on runoff. Moreover, it is imperative to use the state-of-the-art sixth phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to assess glacio-hydrology variations in future. In this study, we coupled a glacio-hydrological model (FLEXG) with a glacier retreat method (Δh-parameterization) to simulate glacio-hydrological processes in the Dongkemadi Glacier (over 5155 m.a.s.l), which has the longest continuous glacio-hydrology observation on the headwater of Yangtze River. The FLEXG-Δh model was forced with in-situ observed meteorological data, radar ice thickness, remote sensing topography and land cover data, and validated by measured runoff. The results showed that the model was capable to simulate hydrological processes in this glacierized basin, with Kling-Gupta efficiency (IKGE) of daily runoff simulation 0.88 in calibration and 0.70 in validation. Then, forcing by the bias-corrected meteorological forcing from the eight latest CMIP6 Earth system models under two climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), we assessed the impact of future climate change on glacier response and its hydrological effects. The results showed that, to the end of simulation in 2100, the volume of the Dongkemadi Glacier would continuously retreat. For the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the glacier volume will decrease by 8.7 × 108 m3 (74%) and 10.8 × 108 m3 (92%) respectively in 2100. The glacier runoff will increase and reach to peak water around 2060 to 2085, after this tipping point water resources will likely decrease.
Ämnesord och genrebeteckningar
Biuppslag (personer, institutioner, konferenser, titlar ...)
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Feng, ZijingEast China Normal University
(författare)
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Zhang, TongLos Alamos National Laboratory
(författare)
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Wang, YuzheUniversity of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
(författare)
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He, XiaoboNorthwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences
(författare)
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Li, HongNorwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate
(författare)
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Pan, XicaiInstitute of Soil Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences
(författare)
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Ren, ZeBeijing Normal University
(författare)
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Chen, XiEast China Normal University
(författare)
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Zhang, WenxinLund University,Lunds universitet,MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,University of Copenhagen(Swepub:lu)we4544zh
(författare)
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Duan, ZhengLund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,Faculty of Science(Swepub:lu)zh7785du
(författare)
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East China Normal UniversityLos Alamos National Laboratory
(creator_code:org_t)
Sammanhörande titlar
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Ingår i:Science of the Total Environment: Elsevier BV7650048-9697
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Gao, Hongkai
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Feng, Zijing
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Zhang, Tong
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Wang, Yuzhe
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He, Xiaobo
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Li, Hong
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visa fler...
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Pan, Xicai
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Ren, Ze
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Chen, Xi
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Zhang, Wenxin
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Duan, Zheng
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