Venn predictors for well-calibrated probability estimation trees

• Successful use of probabilistic classification requires well-calibrated probability estimates, i.e., the predicted class probabilities must correspond to the true probabilities. The standard solution is to employ an additional step, transforming the outputs from a classifier into probability estimates. In this paper, Venn predictors are compared to Platt scaling and isotonic regression, for the purpose of producing well-calibrated probabilistic predictions from decision trees. The empirical investigation, using 22 publicly available datasets, showed that the probability estimates from the Venn predictor were extremely well-calibrated. In fact, in a direct comparison using the accepted reliability metric, the Venn predictor estimates were the most exact on every data set.

Ämnesord

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Data- och informationsvetenskap -- Datavetenskap (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Computer and Information Sciences -- Computer Sciences (hsv//eng)

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Matematik -- Sannolikhetsteori och statistik (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Mathematics -- Probability Theory and Statistics (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Venn predictors

Calibration

Decision trees

Reliability

Business and IT

Handel och IT

Publikations- och innehållstyp

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