Modifications to p-Values of conformal predictors

• The original definition of a p-value in a conformal predictor can sometimes lead to too conservative prediction regions when the number of training or calibration examples is small. The situation can be improved by using a modification to define an approximate p-value. Two modified p-values are presented that converges to the original p-value as the number of training or calibration examples goes to infinity. Numerical experiments empirically support the use of a p-value we call the interpolated p-value for conformal prediction. The interpolated p-value seems to be producing prediction sets that have an error rate which corresponds well to the prescribed significance level.

Ämnesord

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Data- och informationsvetenskap -- Datavetenskap (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Computer and Information Sciences -- Computer Sciences (hsv//eng)

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Data- och informationsvetenskap -- Systemvetenskap, informationssystem och informatik (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Computer and Information Sciences -- Information Systems (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Calibration

Forecasting

Conformal predictions

Conformal predictors

Error rate

Numerical experiments

P-values

Significance levels

Conformal mapping

Computer and Systems Sciences

Publikations- och innehållstyp

ref (ämneskategori)

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