Experimental evidence for a mismatch between insect emergence and waterfowl hatching under increased spring temperatures

• By combining a large-scale experimental assessment on timing of insect emergence with longtermmonitoring of waterfowl hatching date, we here show that insect emergence is mainly driven bytemperature, whereas there is only a weak effect of increasing spring temperatures on inter-annualvariability in observations of waterfowl chicks. Hence, a change in timing of the mass-emergence of insectsfrom lakes and wetlands, which is the crucial food source for waterfowl chicks, will likely result in aconsumer/resource mismatch in a future climate change perspective. Specifically, we experimentally showthat a moderate increase in temperature of 38C above ambient, expected to occur within 25–75 years, leadsto a considerably (2 weeks) earlier, and more pronounced, peak in insect emergence (Chironomus sp).Moreover, by utilizing long-term Citizen Science databases, ranging over several decades, we also showthat common waterfowl species are unable to significantly adjust their reproduction to fit futuretemperature increase. Hence, based on our data we predict a future mismatch between insect emergenceand waterfowl species basing their reproduction on temperature. This will have a profound impact onreproductive success and population dynamics of many aquatic birds, as well as on freshwaterbiodiversity.

Ämnesord

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Biological Sciences -- Ecology (hsv//eng)

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Biologiska vetenskaper -- Ekologi (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Biologi (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Biological Sciences (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Chironomus

citizen science

climate change

crowd sourcing

hatching

insect emergence

mismatch

waterfowl

Chironomus

Publikations- och innehållstyp

ref (ämneskategori)

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