DA-LSTM: A dynamic drift-adaptive learning framework for interval load forecasting with LSTM networks

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Bayram, FirasKarlstads universitet,Institutionen för matematik och datavetenskap (from 2013) (author)

DA-LSTM: A dynamic drift-adaptive learning framework for interval load forecasting with LSTM networks

Article/chapterEnglish2023

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Elsevier,2023
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LIBRIS-ID:oai:DiVA.org:kau-95022
https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-95022URI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engappai.2023.106480DOI

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Language:English
Summary in:English

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Subject category:ref swepub-contenttype
Subject category:art swepub-publicationtype

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Load forecasting is a crucial topic in energy management systems (EMS) due to its vital role in optimizing energy scheduling and enabling more flexible and intelligent power grid systems. As a result, these systems allow power utility companies to respond promptly to demands in the electricity market. Deep learning (DL) models have been commonly employed in load forecasting problems supported by adaptation mechanisms to cope with the changing pattern of consumption by customers, known as concept drift. A drift magnitude threshold should be defined to design change detection methods to identify drifts. While the drift magnitude in load forecasting problems can vary significantly over time, existing literature often assumes a fixed drift magnitude threshold, which should be dynamically adjusted rather than fixed during system evolution. To address this gap, in this paper, we propose a dynamic drift-adaptive Long Short-Term Memory (DA-LSTM) framework that can improve the performance of load forecasting models without requiring a drift threshold setting. We integrate several strategies into the framework based on active and passive adaptation approaches. To evaluate DA-LSTM in real-life settings, we thoroughly analyze the proposed framework and deploy it in a real-world problem through a cloud-based environment. Efficiency is evaluated in terms of the prediction performance of each approach and computational cost. The experiments show performance improvements on multiple evaluation metrics achieved by our framework compared to baseline methods from the literature. Finally, we present a trade-off analysis between prediction performance and computational costs.

Subject headings and genre

NATURVETENSKAP Data- och informationsvetenskap Datavetenskap hsv//swe
NATURAL SCIENCES Computer and Information Sciences Computer Sciences hsv//eng
Concept drift Change-point detection Dynamic drift adaptation Adaptive LSTM Interval load forecasting
Computer Science
Datavetenskap

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Aupke, PhilKarlstads universitet,Institutionen för matematik och datavetenskap (from 2013)(Swepub:kau)philaupk (author)
Ahmed, Bestoun S.,1982-Karlstads universitet,Institutionen för matematik och datavetenskap (from 2013)(Swepub:kau)bestalbe (author)
Kassler, Andreas,1968-Karlstads universitet,Institutionen för matematik och datavetenskap (from 2013)(Swepub:kau)andrkass (author)
Theocharis, AndreasKarlstads universitet,Institutionen för ingenjörsvetenskap och fysik (from 2013)(Swepub:kau)andrtheo (author)
Forsman, JonasCGI, Karlstad, Sweden (author)
Karlstads universitetInstitutionen för matematik och datavetenskap (from 2013) (creator_code:org_t)

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In:Engineering applications of artificial intelligence: Elsevier1230952-19761873-6769

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