Estimation of Individual Failure Rates for Power System Components based on Risk Functions

Jürgensen, Jan Henning,1987-KTH,Elektroteknisk teori och konstruktion,Reliability Centred Asset Management (RCAM) Group (författare)

QC 20180928
The failure rate is essential in power system reliability assessment and thus far it has been commonly assumed as constant. This is a basic approach that delivers reasonable results. However, this approach neglects the heterogeneity in component populations which has a negative impact on the accuracy of the failure rate. This paper proposes a method based on risk functions, which describes the risk behaviour of condition measurements over time, to compute individual failure rates within populations. The method is applied to a population of 12 power transformers on transmission level. The computed individual failure rates depict the impact of maintenance and that power transformers with long operation times have a higher failure rate. Moreover, the paper presents a procedure based on the proposed approach to forecast failure rates. Finally, the individual failure rates are calculated over a specified prediction horizon and depicted with a 95\% confidence interval.

Nordström, LarsKTH,Elkraftteknik,Power system operation and control(Swepub:kth)u16s6dkk (författare)
Hilber, PatrikKTH,Elektroteknisk teori och konstruktion,Reliability Centred Asset Management (RCAM) Group(Swepub:kth)u1sm6ffu (författare)
KTHElektroteknisk teori och konstruktion (creator_code:org_t)

Av författaren/redakt...: Jürgensen, Jan H ...; Nordström, Lars; Hilber, Patrik

Om ämnet

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER: TEKNIK OCH TEKNO ...; och Elektroteknik oc ...; och Annan elektrotek ...

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