Sökning: WFRF:(Jürgensen Jan Henning) >
Estimation of Indiv...
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Jürgensen, Jan Henning,1987-KTH,Elektroteknisk teori och konstruktion,Reliability Centred Asset Management (RCAM) Group
(författare)
Estimation of Individual Failure Rates for Power System Components based on Risk Functions
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Nummerbeteckningar
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LIBRIS-ID:oai:DiVA.org:kth-235518
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https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-235518URI
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Språk:engelska
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Sammanfattning på:engelska
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Klassifikation
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Ämneskategori:vet swepub-contenttype
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Ämneskategori:ovr swepub-publicationtype
Anmärkningar
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QC 20180928
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The failure rate is essential in power system reliability assessment and thus far it has been commonly assumed as constant. This is a basic approach that delivers reasonable results. However, this approach neglects the heterogeneity in component populations which has a negative impact on the accuracy of the failure rate. This paper proposes a method based on risk functions, which describes the risk behaviour of condition measurements over time, to compute individual failure rates within populations. The method is applied to a population of 12 power transformers on transmission level. The computed individual failure rates depict the impact of maintenance and that power transformers with long operation times have a higher failure rate. Moreover, the paper presents a procedure based on the proposed approach to forecast failure rates. Finally, the individual failure rates are calculated over a specified prediction horizon and depicted with a 95\% confidence interval.
Ämnesord och genrebeteckningar
Biuppslag (personer, institutioner, konferenser, titlar ...)
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Nordström, LarsKTH,Elkraftteknik,Power system operation and control(Swepub:kth)u16s6dkk
(författare)
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Hilber, PatrikKTH,Elektroteknisk teori och konstruktion,Reliability Centred Asset Management (RCAM) Group(Swepub:kth)u1sm6ffu
(författare)
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KTHElektroteknisk teori och konstruktion
(creator_code:org_t)
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