Integrating system dynamics and agent-based modeling: A data-driven framework for predicting electric vehicle market penetration and GHG emissions reduction under various incentives scenarios

• As the growing deployment towards transportation electrification, a critical focus has emerged on quantifying the reduction contribution of greenhouse gas emissions from electric vehicles towards achieving carbon neutrality under diverse policy scenarios in the future. This necessitates a dynamic model that captures the evolving composition of the vehicle fleet and accurately forecasts the penetration and developmental trajectory of the electric vehicles in the car market. However, previous studies have largely overlooked the heterogeneity in user usage attributes, rendering them less effective in evaluating the impact of usage-based incentives on electric vehicle market penetration. To bridge this research gap, this study introduces an innovative, data-driven framework that integrates system dynamics and agent-based model. The proposed model can predict levels of electric vehicle penetration and corresponding greenhouse gas emission reductions within the private passenger vehicle sector, under a variety of policy scenarios. Our findings indicate that usage-based incentives, when implemented with optimal intensity, yield more significant emission reduction impacts and long-term economic benefits compared to conventional purchase-based subsidy. These insights not only furnish actionable policy suggestions to expedite the electric vehicle industry's growth in China but also offer valuable implications for other countries seeking to implement effective strategies for combating climate change and fostering sustainable transportation initiatives.

Subject headings

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER  -- Samhällsbyggnadsteknik -- Transportteknik och logistik (hsv//swe)

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY  -- Civil Engineering -- Transport Systems and Logistics (hsv//eng)

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER  -- Naturresursteknik -- Energisystem (hsv//swe)

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY  -- Environmental Engineering -- Energy Systems (hsv//eng)

Keyword

Usage-based incentives

Electric vehicles

GHG emission

System dynamics

Agent-based model

Publication and Content Type

art (subject category)

ref (subject category)