Machine learning-assisted macro simulation for yard arrival prediction

Minbashi, Niloofar,1990-KTH Royal Institute of Technology,KTH,Transportplanering (author)

QC 20231122
Increasing the modal share of the single wagonload transport in Europe requires improving the reliability and predictability of freight trains running between the yards. In this paper, we propose a novel machine learning-assisted macro simulation framework to increase the predictability of yard departures and arrivals. Machine learning is applied through a random forest algorithm to implement a yard departure prediction model. Our yard departure prediction approach is less complex compared to previous yard simulation approaches, and provides an accuracy level of 92% in predictions. Then, departure predictions assist a macro simulation network model (PROTON) to predict arrivals to the succeeding yards. We tested this framework using data from a stretch between two main yards in Sweden; our experiments show that the current framework performs better than the timetable and a basic machine learning arrival prediction model by R2 of 0.48 and a mean absolute error of 35 minutes. Our current results indicate that combination of approaches, including yard and network interactions, can yield competitive results for complex yard arrival time prediction tasks which can assist yard operators and infrastructure managers in yard re-planning processes and yard-network coordination respectively.

Sipilä, Hans,1975-KTH Royal Institute of Technology,KTH,Transportplanering(Swepub:kth)u1nhwo3l (author)
Palmqvist, Carl-WilliamKTH Royal Institute of Technology,Lund University,Lunds universitet,KTH,Transportplanering,Trafik och väg,Institutionen för teknik och samhälle,Institutioner vid LTH,Lunds Tekniska Högskola,LTH profilområde: Energiomställningen,LTH profilområden,Järnvägsteknik,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Transport and Roads,Department of Technology and Society,Departments at LTH,Faculty of Engineering, LTH,LTH Profile Area: The Energy Transition,LTH Profile areas,Faculty of Engineering, LTH,Railway Operation,Lund University Research Groups(Swepub:lu)tft-cpq (author)
Bohlin, Markus,1976-KTH Royal Institute of Technology,KTH,Transportplanering(Swepub:kth)u1zdvexq (author)
Kordnejad, Behzad,1980-KTH Royal Institute of Technology,KTH,Transportplanering(Swepub:kth)u1iogp4h (author)
KTHTransportplanering (creator_code:org_t)

In:Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management: Elsevier BV252210-97062210-9714

By the author/editor: Minbashi, Niloof ...; Sipilä, Hans, 19 ...; Palmqvist, Carl- ...; Bohlin, Markus, ...; Kordnejad, Behza ...

About the subject

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY: ENGINEERING AND ...; and Civil Engineerin ...; and Transport System ...

NATURAL SCIENCES: NATURAL SCIENCES; and Computer and Inf ...; and Computer Science ...

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