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Refined Modeling of...
Refined Modeling of Geoeffective Fast Halo CMEs During Solar Cycle 24
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- Yordanova, Emiliya (författare)
- Uppsala universitet,Institutet för rymdfysik, Uppsalaavdelningen
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- Temmer, M. (författare)
- Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Graz, Austria,Graz Univ, Inst Phys, Graz, Austria.
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- Dumbović, M. (författare)
- Hvar Observatory, Faculty of Geodesy, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia,Univ Zagreb, Fac Geodesy, Hvar Observ, Zagreb, Croatia.
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- Scolini, C. (författare)
- Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium,Royal Observ Belgium, Brussels, Belgium.
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- Paouris, E. (författare)
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA; Applied Physics Laboratory, Johns Hopkins University, Laurel, MD, USA,George Mason Univ, Dept Phys & Astron, Fairfax, VA USA.;Johns Hopkins Univ, Appl Phys Lab, Laurel, MD USA.
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- Werner, A. L. Elisabeth (författare)
- Uppsala universitet,Institutet för rymdfysik, Uppsalaavdelningen
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- Dimmock, Andrew P. (författare)
- Uppsala universitet,Institutet för rymdfysik, Uppsalaavdelningen
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- Sorriso-Valvo, Luca (författare)
- Uppsala universitet,KTH,Rymd- och plasmafysik,Swedish Institute of Space Physics, Uppsala, Sweden; Institute for Plasma Science and Technology (ISTP), CNR, Bari, Italy,Institutet för rymdfysik, Uppsalaavdelningen,CNR, Inst Plasma Sci & Technol ISTP, Bari, Italy; KTH Royal Inst Technol, Sch Elect Engn & Comp Sci, Space & Plasma Phys, Stockholm, Sweden
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(creator_code:org_t)
- American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2024
- 2024
- Engelska.
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Ingår i: Space Weather. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 1542-7390. ; 22:1
- Relaterad länk:
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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https://uu.diva-port... (primary) (Raw object)
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- The propagation of geoeffective fast halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from solar cycle 24 has been investigated using the European Heliospheric Forecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA), ENLIL, Drag-Based Model (DBM) and Effective Acceleration Model (EAM) models. For an objective comparison, a unified set of a small sample of CME events with similar characteristics has been selected. The same CME kinematic parameters have been used as input in the propagation models to compare their predicted arrival times and the speed of the interplanetary (IP) shocks associated with the CMEs. The performance assessment has been based on the application of an identical set of metrics. First, the modeling of the events has been done with default input concerning the background solar wind, as would be used in operations. The obtained CME arrival forecast deviates from the observations at L1, with a general underestimation of the arrival time and overestimation of the impact speed (mean absolute error [MAE]: 9.8 ± 1.8–14.6 ± 2.3 hr and 178 ± 22–376 ± 54 km/s). To address this discrepancy, we refine the models by simple changes of the density ratio (dcld) between the CME and IP space in the numerical, and the IP drag (γ) in the analytical models. This approach resulted in a reduced MAE in the forecast for the arrival time of 8.6 ± 2.2–13.5 ± 2.2 hr and the impact speed of 51 ± 6–243 ± 45 km/s. In addition, we performed multi-CME runs to simulate potential interactions. This leads, to even larger uncertainties in the forecast. Based on this study we suggest simple adjustments in the operational settings for improving the forecast of fast halo CMEs.
Ämnesord
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Fysik -- Astronomi, astrofysik och kosmologi (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Physical Sciences -- Astronomy, Astrophysics and Cosmology (hsv//eng)
Nyckelord
- background solar wind
- CME arrival time
- CME impact speed
- halo CME
- space weather forecast
Publikations- och innehållstyp
- ref (ämneskategori)
- art (ämneskategori)
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