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A spatially explici...
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Acosta, LilibethPotsdam Institute Climate Impact Research PIK, Germany
(författare)
A spatially explicit scenario-driven model of adaptive capacity to global change in Europe
- Artikel/kapitelEngelska2013
Förlag, utgivningsår, omfång ...
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Elsevier,2013
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printrdacarrier
Nummerbeteckningar
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LIBRIS-ID:oai:DiVA.org:liu-102987
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https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-102987URI
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.03.008DOI
Kompletterande språkuppgifter
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Språk:engelska
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Sammanfattning på:engelska
Ingår i deldatabas
Klassifikation
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Ämneskategori:ref swepub-contenttype
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Ämneskategori:art swepub-publicationtype
Anmärkningar
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Funding Agencies|European Commission|EVK2-2000-00075|
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Traditional impact models combine exposure in the form of scenarios and sensitivity in the form of parameters, providing potential impacts of global change as model outputs. However, adaptive capacity is rarely addressed in these models. This paper presents the first spatially explicit scenario-driven model of adaptive capacity, which can be combined with impact models to support quantitative vulnerability assessment. The adaptive capacity model is based on twelve socio-economic indicators, each of which is projected into the future using four global environmental change scenarios, and then aggregated into an adaptive capacity index in a stepwise approach using fuzzy set theory. The adaptive capacity model provides insight into broad patterns of adaptive capacity across Europe, the relative importance of the various determinants of adaptive capacity, and how adaptive capacity changes over time under different social and economic assumptions. As such it provides a context for the implementation of specific adaptation measures. This could improve integrated assessment models and could be extended to other regions. However, there is a clear need for a better theoretical understanding of the adaptive capacity concept, and its relationship to the actual implementation of adaptation measures. This requires more empirical research and coordinated meta-analyses across regions and economic sectors, and the development of bottom-up modelling techniques that can incorporate human decision making.
Ämnesord och genrebeteckningar
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Adaptation
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Adaptive capacity
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Fuzzy logic analysis
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Scenario development
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SOCIAL SCIENCES
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SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP
Biuppslag (personer, institutioner, konferenser, titlar ...)
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Klein, Richard J TLinköpings universitet,Tema vatten i natur och samhälle,Filosofiska fakulteten,Centrum för klimatpolitisk forskning,Stockholm Environment Institute, Sweden(Swepub:liu)rickl78
(författare)
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Reidsma, PytrikWageningen University, Netherlands
(författare)
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Metzger, Marc JUniversity of Edinburgh, Scotland
(författare)
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Rounsevell, Mark D AUniversity of Edinburgh, Scotland
(författare)
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Leemans, RikWageningen University, Netherlands
(författare)
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Schroeter, DagmarInt Institute Appl Syst Anal, Austria
(författare)
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Potsdam Institute Climate Impact Research PIK, GermanyTema vatten i natur och samhälle
(creator_code:org_t)
Sammanhörande titlar
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Ingår i:Global Environmental Change: Elsevier23:5, s. 1211-12240959-37801872-9495
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