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The ADnet Bayesian belief network for alder decline : integrating empirical data and expert knowledge

Gomes Marques, Inês (författare)
Forest Research Centre, Associate Laboratory TERRA, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, Lisbon, Portugal; cE3c - Center for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Change & CHANGE - Global Change and Sustainability Institute, Faculty of Sciences, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal
Vieites-Blanco, Cristina (författare)
Forest Research Centre, Associate Laboratory TERRA, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, Lisbon, Portugal
Rodríguez-González, Patricia M. (författare)
Forest Research Centre, Associate Laboratory TERRA, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, Lisbon, Portugal
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Segurado, Pedro (författare)
Forest Research Centre, Associate Laboratory TERRA, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, Lisbon, Portugal
Marques, Marlene (författare)
Forest Research Centre, Associate Laboratory TERRA, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, Lisbon, Portugal
Barrento, Maria J. (författare)
Instituto Nacional de Investigação Agrária e Veterinária I.P., Av. da República, Quinta do Marquês, Oeiras, Portugal
Fernandes, Maria R. (författare)
Forest Research Centre, Associate Laboratory TERRA, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, Lisbon, Portugal
Cupertino, Arthur (författare)
Forest Research Centre, Associate Laboratory TERRA, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, Lisbon, Portugal
Almeida, Helena (författare)
Forest Research Centre, Associate Laboratory TERRA, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, Lisbon, Portugal
Biurrun, Idoia (författare)
Department of Plant Biology and Ecology, Faculty of Science and Technology, University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU, Bilbao, Spain
Corcobado, Tamara (författare)
Austrian Research Centre for Forests (BFW), Vienna, Austria; Phytophthora Research Centre, Mendel University, Brno, Czech Republic
Costa e Silva, Filipe (författare)
Forest Research Centre, Associate Laboratory TERRA, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, Lisbon, Portugal
Díez, Julio J. (författare)
iuFOR- Sustainable Forest Management, Research Institute, University of Valladolid, Palencia, Spain
Dufour, Simon (författare)
Université Rennes 2, CNRS, UMR LETG, CA, Rennes Cedex, France
Faria, Carla (författare)
Forest Research Centre, Associate Laboratory TERRA, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, Lisbon, Portugal
Ferreira, Maria T. (författare)
Forest Research Centre, Associate Laboratory TERRA, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, Lisbon, Portugal
Ferreira, Verónica (författare)
MARE – Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre, ARNET – Aquatic Research Network, Department of Life Sciences, University of Coimbra, Calçada Martim de Freitas, Coimbra, Portugal
Jansson, Roland, 1967- (författare)
Umeå universitet,Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap
Machado, Helena (författare)
Instituto Nacional de Investigação Agrária e Veterinária I.P., Av. da República, Quinta do Marquês, Oeiras, Portugal
Marçais, Benoit (författare)
Université de Lorraine, INRAE, UMR Interactions arbres/microorganismes, Nancy, France
Moreira, Ana C. (författare)
Instituto Nacional de Investigação Agrária e Veterinária I.P., Quinta do Marquês, Oeiras, Portugal
Oliva, Jonàs (författare)
Department of Agricultural and Forest Sciences and Engineering, University of Lleida, Lleida, Spain; Joint Research Unit CTFC–AGROTECNIO–CERCA, Lleida, Spain
Pielech, Remigiusz (författare)
Institute of Botany, Faculty of Biology, Jagiellonian University in Kraków, Poland
Rodrigues, Ana P. (författare)
Forest Research Centre, Associate Laboratory TERRA, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, Lisbon, Portugal
David, Teresa S. (författare)
Forest Research Centre, Associate Laboratory TERRA, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, Lisbon, Portugal; Instituto Nacional de Investigação Agrária e Veterinária I.P., Quinta do Marquês, Oeiras, Portugal
Solla, Alejandro (författare)
Faculty of Forestry, Institute for Dehesa Research (INDEHESA), Universidad de Extremadura, Plasencia, Spain
Jung, Thomas (författare)
Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology, Department of Forest Protection and Wildlife Management, Phytophthora Research Centre, Brno, Czech Republic; Phytophthora Research and Consultancy, Nussdorf, Germany
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 (creator_code:org_t)
Elsevier, 2024
2024
Engelska.
Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 947
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
Abstract Ämnesord
Stäng  
  • The globalization in plant material trading has caused the emergence of invasive pests in many ecosystems, such as the alder pathogen Phytophthora ×alni in European riparian forests. Due to the ecological importance of alder to the functioning of rivers and the increasing incidence of P. ×alni-induced alder decline, effective and accessible decision tools are required to help managers and stakeholders control the disease. This study proposes a Bayesian belief network methodology to integrate diverse information on the factors affecting the survival and infection ability of P. ×alni in riparian habitats to help predict and manage disease incidence. The resulting Alder Decline Network (ADnet) management tool integrates information about alder decline from scientific literature, expert knowledge and empirical data. Expert knowledge was gathered through elicitation techniques that included 19 experts from 12 institutions and 8 countries. An original dataset was created covering 1189 European locations, from which P. ×alni occurrence was modeled based on bioclimatic variables. ADnet uncertainty was evaluated through its sensitivity to changes in states and three scenario analyses. The ADnet tool indicated that mild temperatures and high precipitation are key factors favoring pathogen survival. Flood timing, water velocity, and soil type have the strongest influence on disease incidence. ADnet can support ecosystem management decisions and knowledge transfer to address P. ×alni-induced alder decline at local or regional levels across Europe. Management actions such as avoiding the planting of potentially infected trees or removing man-made structures that increase the flooding period in disease-affected sites could decrease the incidence of alder disease in riparian forests and limit its spread. The coverage of the ADnet tool can be expanded by updating data on the pathogen's occurrence, particularly from its distributional limits. Research on the role of genetic variability in alder susceptibility and pathogen virulence may also help improve future ADnet versions.

Ämnesord

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Biologi -- Botanik (hsv//swe)
NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Biological Sciences -- Botany (hsv//eng)
NATURVETENSKAP  -- Biologi -- Ekologi (hsv//swe)
NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Biological Sciences -- Ecology (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Alnus
Decision support tool
Expert knowledge
Integrated pest management (IPM)
Phytophthora ×alni
Riparian ecosystems

Publikations- och innehållstyp

ref (ämneskategori)
art (ämneskategori)

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