Search: id:"swepub:oai:DiVA.org:liu-189791" >
The Importance of L...
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Gilbertson, KendraColorado State Univ, CO 80523 USA
(author)
The Importance of Livestock Demography and Infrastructure in Driving Foot and Mouth Disease Dynamics
- Article/chapterEnglish2022
Publisher, publication year, extent ...
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2022-10-14
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MDPI,2022
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electronicrdacarrier
Numbers
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LIBRIS-ID:oai:DiVA.org:liu-189791
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https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-189791URI
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https://doi.org/10.3390/life12101604DOI
Supplementary language notes
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Language:English
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Summary in:English
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Subject category:ref swepub-contenttype
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Subject category:art swepub-publicationtype
Notes
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Funding Agencies|U.S. Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Directorate [HSHQDC-13-B0028, D15PC00278]; USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture [2022-67015-36923]
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Transboundary animal diseases, such as foot and mouth disease (FMD) pose a significant and ongoing threat to global food security. Such diseases can produce large, spatially complex outbreaks. Mathematical models are often used to understand the spatio-temporal dynamics and create response plans for possible disease introductions. Model assumptions regarding transmission behavior of premises and movement patterns of livestock directly impact our understanding of the ecological drivers of outbreaks and how to best control them. Here, we investigate the impact that these assumptions have on model predictions of FMD outbreaks in the U.S. using models of livestock shipment networks and disease spread. We explore the impact of changing assumptions about premises transmission behavior, both by including within-herd dynamics, and by accounting for premises type and increasing the accuracy of shipment predictions. We find that the impact these assumptions have on outbreak predictions is less than the impact of the underlying livestock demography, but that they are important for investigating some response objectives, such as the impact on trade. These results suggest that demography is a key ecological driver of outbreaks and is critical for making robust predictions but that understanding management objectives is also important when making choices about model assumptions.
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Brommesson, Peter,1981-Linköpings universitet,Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering,Tekniska fakulteten(Swepub:liu)petbr58
(author)
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Minter, AmandaUniv Warwick, England; Univ Warwick, England
(author)
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Hallman, ClaytonUSDA APHIS Vet Serv, CO 80526 USA
(author)
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Miller, Ryan S.USDA APHIS Vet Serv, CO 80526 USA
(author)
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Portacci, KatieUSDA APHIS Vet Serv, CO 80526 USA
(author)
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Sellman, Stefan,1984-Linköpings universitet,Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering,Tekniska fakulteten(Swepub:liu)stese95
(author)
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Tildesley, Michael J.Univ Warwick, England; Univ Warwick, England
(author)
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Webb, Colleen T.Colorado State Univ, CO 80523 USA
(author)
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Lindström, Tom,1977-Linköpings universitet,Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering,Tekniska fakulteten(Swepub:liu)tomli96
(author)
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Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M.Colorado State Univ, CO 80523 USA
(author)
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Colorado State Univ, CO 80523 USAEkologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering
(creator_code:org_t)
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In:Life: MDPI12:102075-1729
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Minter, Amanda
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Hallman, Clayton
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Miller, Ryan S.
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Portacci, Katie
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Life
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Linköping University