Mean species responses predict effects of environmental change on coexistence

Funding Agencies|FNRS-FRFC [2.5020.11, GEQ U.G006.15, 1610468, RW/GEQ2016 et U]; Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Offi [NKFI-123796]; Universite de Namur [2.5020.11, GEQ U.G006.15, 1610468, RW/GEQ2016 et U]; NARC fellowsh; Waalse Gewest [2.5020.11, GEQ U.G006.15, 1610468, RW/GEQ2016 et U]; Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Offi [NKFI-123796]; Waalse Gewest [2.5020.11, GEQ U.G006.15, 1610468, RW/GEQ2016 et U]
Environmental change research is plagued by the curse of dimensionality: the number of communities at risk and the number of environmental drivers are both large. This raises the pressing question if a general understanding of ecological effects is achievable. Here, we show evidence that this is indeed possible. Using theoretical and simulation-based evidence for bi- and tritrophic communities, we show that environmental change effects on coexistence are proportional to mean species responses and depend on how trophic levels on average interact prior to environmental change. We then benchmark our findings using relevant cases of environmental change, showing that means of temperature optima and of species sensitivities to pollution predict concomitant effects on coexistence. Finally, we demonstrate how to apply our theory to the analysis of field data, finding support for effects of land use change on coexistence in natural invertebrate communities.

NATURVETENSKAP Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap Miljövetenskap hsv//swe
NATURAL SCIENCES Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Environmental Sciences hsv//eng
climate change; community ecology; environmental ecology; environmental stressors; food chains; food webs; global change; pollution

Carpentier, CamilleUniv Namur, Belgium (författare)
Carletti, TimoteoUniv Namur, Belgium (författare)
Song, ChuliangPrinceton Univ, NJ USA (författare)
Rumschlag, Samantha L.Univ Notre Dame, IN USA (författare)
Mahon, Michael B.Univ Notre Dame, IN USA (författare)
Simonin, MarieUniv Angers, France (författare)
Meszena, GezaEotvos Lorand Univ, Hungary; Ctr Ecol Res, Hungary (författare)
Barabas, GyörgyLinköpings universitet,Ekologisk och miljövetenskaplig modellering,Tekniska fakulteten,Ctr Ecol Res, Hungary(Swepub:liu)gyoba85 (författare)
Univ Namur, BelgiumPrinceton Univ, NJ USA (creator_code:org_t)

Av författaren/redakt...: De Laender, Fred ...; Carpentier, Cami ...; Carletti, Timote ...; Song, Chuliang; Rumschlag, Saman ...; Mahon, Michael B ...; visa fler...; Simonin, Marie; Meszena, Geza; Barabas, György; visa färre...

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NATURVETENSKAP: NATURVETENSKAP; och Geovetenskap och ...; och Miljövetenskap

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