Influence on disease spread dynamics of herd characteristics in a structured livestock industry

Lindström, TomLinköpings universitet,Teoretisk Biologi,Tekniska högskolan (författare)

Funding Agencies|Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security|ST-108-000017|
Studies of between-herd contacts may provide important insight to disease transmission dynamics. By comparing the result from models with different levels of detail in the description of animal movement, we studied how factors influence the final epidemic size as well as the dynamic behaviour of an outbreak. We investigated the effect of contact heterogeneity of pig herds in Sweden due to herd size, between-herd distance and production type. Our comparative study suggests that the production-type structure is the most influential factor. Hence, our results imply that production type is the most important factor to obtain valid data for and include when modelling and analysing this system. The study also revealed that all included factors reduce the final epidemic size and also have yet more diverse effects on initial rate of disease spread. This implies that a large set of factors ought to be included to assess relevant predictions when modelling disease spread between herds. Furthermore, our results show that a more detailed model changes predictions regarding the variability in the outbreak dynamics and conclude that this is an important factor to consider in risk assessment.

Sternberg Lewerin, SusannaNational Vet Institute (författare)
Wennergren, UnoLinköpings universitet,Teoretisk Biologi,Tekniska högskolan(Swepub:liu)unowe61 (författare)
Linköpings universitetTeoretisk Biologi (creator_code:org_t)

Ingår i:Journal of the Royal Society Interface: ROYAL SOC, 6-9 CARLTON HOUSE TERRACE, LONDON SW1Y 5AG, ENGLAND9:71, s. 1287-12941742-56891742-5662

Av författaren/redakt...: Lindström, Tom; Sternberg Leweri ...; Wennergren, Uno

Kungliga biblioteket hanterar dina personuppgifter i enlighet med EU:s dataskyddsförordning (2018), GDPR. Läs mer om hur det funkar här.
Så här hanterar KB dina uppgifter vid användning av denna tjänst.