Modelling the spread of penicillin-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae in day-care and evaluation of intervention.

• In 1995, a disease control and intervention project was initiated in Malmöhus county in southern Sweden to limit the spread of penicillin-resistant pneumococci. Since most of the carriers of pneumococci are preschool children, and since most of the spread is believed to take place in day-care, a mathematical model, in the form of a stochastic process, for the spread in a day-care group was constructed. Effects of seasonal variation and size of the day-care group were particularly considered. The model was then used for comparing results from computer simulations without and with intervention. Results indicate that intervention is highly effective in day-care groups with more than ten children during the second half of the year.

Ämnesord

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Matematik -- Sannolikhetsteori och statistik (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Mathematics -- Probability Theory and Statistics (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Biometry

Child Day Care Centers

Child; Preschool

Computer Simulation

Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control/statistics & numerical data

Humans

Likelihood Functions

Models; Statistical

Penicillin Resistance

Pneumococcal Infections/epidemiology/prevention & control/*transmission

Seasons

Stochastic Processes

Streptococcus pneumoniae/drug effects

Sweden/epidemiology

Mathematical statistics

Matematisk statistik

SOCIAL SCIENCES

Publikations- och innehållstyp

ref (ämneskategori)

art (ämneskategori)