The asymptotic final size distribution of multitype chain-binomial epidemic processes.

Andersson, MikaelStockholms universitet,Matematiska institutionen,Matematisk statistik (författare)

A multitype chain-binomial epidemic process is defined for a closed finite population by sampling a simple multidimensional counting process at certain points. The final size of the epidemic is then characterized, given the counting process, as the smallest root of a non-linear system of equations. By letting the population grow, this characterization is used, in combination with a branching process approximation and a weak convergence result for the counting process, to derive the asymptotic distribution of the final size. This is done for processes with an irreducible contact structure both when the initial infection increases at the same rate as the population and when it stays fixed.

NATURVETENSKAP Matematik Sannolikhetsteori och statistik hsv//swe
NATURAL SCIENCES Mathematics Probability Theory and Statistics hsv//eng
Multitype chain-binomial epidemic process; counting process; weak convergence; branching process
Mathematical statistics
Matematisk statistik

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