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A roadmap for rapid...
A roadmap for rapid decarbonization : Emissions inevitably approach zero with a “carbon law”
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- Rockström, Johan (författare)
- Stockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre
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- Gaffney, Owen (författare)
- Stockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden
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Rogelj, Joeri (författare)
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Meinshausen, Malte (författare)
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Nakicenovic, Nebojsa (författare)
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- Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim (författare)
- Stockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany
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(creator_code:org_t)
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), 2017
- 2017
- Engelska.
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 355:6331, s. 1269-1271
- Relaterad länk:
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http://pure.iiasa.ac...
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- Although the Paris Agreement's goals (1) are aligned with science (2) and can, in principle, be technically and economically achieved (3), alarming inconsistencies remain between science-based targets and national commitments. Despite progress during the 2016 Marrakech climate negotiations, long-term goals can be trumped by political short-termism. Following the Agreement, which became international law earlier than expected, several countries published mid-century decarbonization strategies, with more due soon. Model-based decarbonization assessments (4) and scenarios often struggle to capture transformative change and the dynamics associated with it: disruption, innovation, and nonlinear change in human behavior. For example, in just 2 years, China's coal use swung from 3.7% growth in 2013 to a decline of 3.7% in 2015 (5). To harness these dynamics and to calibrate for short-term realpolitik, we propose framing the decarbonization challenge in terms of a global decadal roadmap based on a simple heuristic—a “carbon law”—of halving gross anthropogenic carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions every decade. Complemented by immediately instigated, scalable carbon removal and efforts to ramp down land-use CO2 emissions, this can lead to net-zero emissions around mid-century, a path necessary to limit warming to well below 2°C.
Ämnesord
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)
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