Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 degrees C vs. 2 degrees C warming scenarios

↓ Direkt till sidans innehåll
↓ Direkt till sidans sekundära innehåll (sidomenyn)

Search: id:"swepub:oai:DiVA.org:su-157657" > Euro-Atlantic winte...

1 of 1
Previous record
Next record
To hitlist

Details
MARC

Barcikowska, Monika J. (author)

Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 degrees C vs. 2 degrees C warming scenarios

Article/chapterEnglish2018

Publisher, publication year, extent ...

2018-06-05
Copernicus GmbH,2018
printrdacarrier

Numbers

LIBRIS-ID:oai:DiVA.org:su-157657
https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-157657URI
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-679-2018DOI

Supplementary language notes

Language:English
Summary in:English

Part of subdatabase

SwePubSwePub

Classification

Subject category:ref swepub-contenttype
Subject category:art swepub-publicationtype

Notes

Severe winter storms in combination with precipitation extremes pose a serious threat to Europe. Located at the southeastern exit of the North Atlantic's storm track, European coastlines are directly exposed to impacts by high wind speeds, storm floods and coastal erosion. In this study we analyze potential changes in simulated winter storminess and extreme precipitation, which may occur under 1.5 or 2 degrees C warming scenarios. Here we focus on a first simulation suite of the atmospheric model CAM5 performed within the HAPPI project and evaluate how changes of the horizontal model resolution impact the results regarding atmospheric pressure, storm tracks, wind speed and precipitation extremes. The comparison of CAM5 simulations with different resolutions indicates that an increased horizontal resolution to 0.25 degrees not only refines regional-scale information but also improves large-scale atmospheric circulation features over the Euro-Atlantic region. The zonal bias in monthly pressure at mean sea level and wind fields, which is typically found in low-resolution models, is considerably reduced. This allows us to analyze potential changes in regional-to local-scale extreme wind speeds and precipitation in a more realistic way. Our analysis of the future response for the 2 degrees C warming scenario generally confirms previous model simulations suggesting a poleward shift and intensification of the meridional circulation in the Euro-Atlantic region. Additional analysis suggests that this shift occurs mainly after exceeding the 1.5 degrees C global warming level, when the midlatitude jet stream manifests a strengthening northeastward. At the same time, this northeastern shift of the storm tracks allows an intensification and northeastern expansion of the Azores high, leading to a tendency of less precipitation across the Bay of Biscay and North Sea. Regions impacted by the strengthening of the midlatitude jet, such as the northwestern coasts of the British Isles, Scandinavia and the Norwegian Sea, and over the North Atlantic east of Newfoundland, experience an increase in the mean as well as daily and sub-daily precipitation, wind extremes and storminess, suggesting an important influence of increasing storm activity in these regions in response to global warming.

Subject headings and genre

NATURVETENSKAP Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap hsv//swe
NATURAL SCIENCES Earth and Related Environmental Sciences hsv//eng

Added entries (persons, corporate bodies, meetings, titles ...)

Weaver, Scott J. (author)
Feser, Frauke (author)
Russo, Simone (author)
Schenk, FrederikStockholms universitet,Institutionen för geologiska vetenskaper(Swepub:su)fsche (author)
Stone, Daithi A. (author)
Wehner, Michael F. (author)
Zahn, Matthias (author)
Stockholms universitetInstitutionen för geologiska vetenskaper (creator_code:org_t)

Related titles

In:Earth System Dynamics: Copernicus GmbH9:2, s. 679-6992190-49792190-4987

Internet link

Find in a library

Earth System Dynamics (Search for host publication in LIBRIS)

To the university's database

1 of 1
Previous record
Next record
To hitlist

Find more in SwePub

By the author/editor: Barcikowska, Mon ...; Weaver, Scott J.; Feser, Frauke; Russo, Simone; Schenk, Frederik; Stone, Daithi A.; show more...; Wehner, Michael ...; Zahn, Matthias; show less...

About the subject

NATURAL SCIENCES: NATURAL SCIENCES; and Earth and Relate ...

Articles in the publication: Earth System Dyn ...

By the university: Stockholm University

Search outside SwePub

Extend your search to:: Google; Google Book Search; Google Scholar

Kungliga biblioteket hanterar dina personuppgifter i enlighet med EU:s dataskyddsförordning (2018), GDPR. Läs mer om hur det funkar här.
Så här hanterar KB dina uppgifter vid användning av denna tjänst.

LIBRIS.kb.se