An SIR epidemic on a weighted network

• We introduce a weighted configuration model graph, where edge weights correspond to the probability of infection in an epidemic on the graph. On these graphs, we study the development of a Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered epidemic using both Reed-Frost and Markovian settings. For the special case of having two different edge types, we determine the basic reproduction number R-0, the probability of a major outbreak, and the relative final size of a major outbreak. Results are compared with those for a calibrated unweighted graph. The degree distributions are based on both theoretical constructs and empirical network data. In addition, bivariate standard normal copulas are used to model the dependence between the degrees of the two edge types, allowing for modeling the correlation between edge types over a wide range. Among the results are that the weighted graph produces much richer results than the unweighted graph. Also, while R-0 always increases with increasing correlation between the two degrees, this is not necessarily true for the probability of a major outbreak nor for the relative final size of a major outbreak. When using copulas we see that these can produce results that are similar to those of the empirical degree distributions, indicating that in some cases a copula is a viable alternative to using the full empirical data.

Ämnesord

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Matematik (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Mathematics (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

epidemics

basic reproduction number

weighted graph

configuration model

final size

major outbreak

copula

Mathematical Statistics

matematisk statistik

Publikations- och innehållstyp

ref (ämneskategori)

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