Natural resource conflicts : causal network analysis to identify key variables towards conflict prevention and peacebuilding

• Natural resource use is frequently identified as a key driver of violent conflicts. A number of theories have been proposed to explain how signals from natural resource systems translate through socio-economic and political contexts into violent conflicts. However, to date these theories have provided only partial representations of the resource-conflict nexus, sometimes overly simplified or contested due to the large number of important intervening socio-economic and political variables. As a first step towards a systemic assessment of key variables towards conflict prevention and peacebuilding, we systematically reviewed the scientific literature to map the established direct and indirect causal relationships linking natural resources and violent conflict. From 19 selected key review papers, we originally identified 2626 variables and 2586 causal relationships, which were integrated and reduced through iterative aggregation steps to a single causal network comprising 542 variables and 1525 causal relationships between them. We analysed the structure of this causal network using five network analysis metrics and identified 40 key variables of the resource-conflict nexus. One-third of these key variables related to quality of governance, whilst other key variables related to conflict, economic, environmental, and social themes, interconnected from local to international geographical scales. The results confirmed the multi-dimensional and cross-scale character of natural resource conflicts. The results also underline the importance of causal feedback loops in the resource-conflict nexus, which have been understudied and align well with the understanding of conflict phases throughout the conflict cycle. To reverse vicious circles of violent conflict into virtuous circles of peaceful development, we identified the strongest intervention points in building capacity for collective action, improving natural resource governance, strengthening state capacity, and balancing supply and demand. Natural resource exploitation, its revenues, and improvement and conservation of the environment can stabilise peaceful situations. These findings provide a crucial first step towards improved understanding of the systemic causes of natural resource conflicts in support of effective policies for conflict prevention and peacebuilding.

Ämnesord

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Natural resource conflicts

natural resources

violent conflict

network analysis

causal diagram

conflict prevention

peacebuilding

Publikations- och innehållstyp

vet (ämneskategori)

ovr (ämneskategori)