A spatial regime shift from predator to prey dominance in a large coastal ecosystem

Eklöf, Johan S.Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences,Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet,Stockholms universitet,Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och botanik,Institutionen för akvatiska resurser,Department of Aquatic Resources (author)

Regime shifts in ecosystem structure and processes are typically studied from a temporal perspective. Yet, theory predicts that in large ecosystems with environmental gradients, shifts should start locally and gradually spread through space. Here we empirically document a spatially propagating shift in the trophic structure of a large aquatic ecosystem, from dominance of large predatory fish (perch, pike) to the small prey fish, the three-spined stickleback. Fish surveys in 486 shallow bays along the 1200 km western Baltic Sea coast during 1979–2017 show that the shift started in wave-exposed archipelago areas near the open sea, but gradually spread towards the wave-sheltered mainland coast. Ecosystem surveys in 32 bays in 2014 show that stickleback predation on juvenile predators (predator–prey reversal) generates a feedback mechanism that appears to reinforce the shift. In summary, managers must account for spatial heterogeneity and dispersal to better predict, detect and confront regime shifts within large ecosystems.

Sundblad, Göran (author)
Erlandsson, MårtenSwedish University of Agricultural Sciences,Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet,Institutionen för akvatiska resurser,Department of Aquatic Resources (author)
Donadi, SerenaSveriges lantbruksuniversitet,Stockholms universitet,Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och botanik,Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Sweden,Institutionen för akvatiska resurser,Department of Aquatic Resources,Stockholm University(Swepub:su)sdona (author)
Hansen, Joakim P.Stockholms universitet,Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum(Swepub:su)joha0876 (author)
Eriksson, Britas Klemens (author)
Bergström, UlfSwedish University of Agricultural Sciences,Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet,Institutionen för akvatiska resurser,Department of Aquatic Resources(Swepub:slu)50486 (author)
Stockholms universitetInstitutionen för ekologi, miljö och botanik (creator_code:org_t)
Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet

By the author/editor: Eklöf, Johan S.; Sundblad, Göran; Erlandsson, Mårt ...; Donadi, Serena; Hansen, Joakim P ...; Eriksson, Britas ...; show more...; Bergström, Ulf; show less...

About the subject

By the university: Stockholm University; Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences

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