Load scenarios for Ecosupport: Technical Report No. 4

Load scenarios for Ecosupport : Technical Report No. 4

In the project ECOSUPPORT, three coupled physical-biogeochemical models (ER-GOM, RCO-SCOBI and BALTSEM) are used to produce an ensemble of combine climate change - nutrient load scenarios. The atmospheric driving forces for the models are produced by two global climate models, ECHAM5 and HadCM3; and these results are dynamically downscaled using the RCAO model at the SMHI, see Meier et al. (2011) and references therein. Since, results from dynamic hydrological models were not available, river runoff were constructed from the net P-E balance of the RCAO model results. Nutrient load scenarios wasto be explicitly given, but effects from climate change induced river runoff variations were estimated. In total, four different climate change scenarios produced and four different assumptions on direct anthropogenic changes in nutrient loads, thus in total 16 combinations. The nutrient load scenarios comprised of; one reference with approximately unchanged loads, one pessimistic business as usual and two more optimistic, current legislation and Baltic Sea Action Plan. All the latter based on previous work. This report describes the construction of these nutrient load scenarios.

Savchuk, OlegStockholms universitet,Baltic Nest Institute(Swepub:su)oleg (författare)
Meier, H. E. MarkusStockholms universitet,Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU),Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (författare)
Stockholms universitetBaltic Nest Institute (creator_code:org_t)

Av författaren/redakt...: Gustafsson, Bo G ...; Savchuk, Oleg; Meier, H. E. Mar ...

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