Cross-Border Climate Impacts in Food Trade Networks

• Climate impacts are predicted to become redistributed through countries’ reliance on food trade networks. This constitutes a significant challenge for climate adaptation planning, and may affect how countries engage in geopolitical and cooperative action. This paper explores potential impacts of climate change on global food trade networks. We ask: i) to what extent might climate change impacts entail a change in the structure of global food trade networks, and ii) how might a change in supply be distributed among the countries in trade blocs? We propose a simple network model to identify how climate change impacts on crops yields may be translated into changes in trade. Combining FAO and ISIMIP data, the model is applied to three key staple crops in the global food system: wheat, rice and maize. We use network community detection and functional cartography to analyse the degree to which global production is concentrated within different trade blocs before and after climate change impacts, and how countries distribute supply depending on their different network role. Our results predict that food trade networks may become more disaggregated as countries, particularly major global producers, may increasingly distribute their trade across modules with climate change impacts. Results also estimate that global food security may much depend on production change in a few major global producers, and whether trade blocs can balance production loss in some vulnerable countries. Overall, our model contributes a baseline scenario analysis of cross-border impacts on food trade networks, and insight into whether current food trade structures will allow counties to maintain current supply.

Ämnesord

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Annan naturvetenskap (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Other Natural Sciences (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

cross border climate change impacts

food trade networks

global food system

climate adaptation

network community detection

Sustainability Science

vetenskap om hållbar utveckling

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