Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points

Armstrong McKay, David I.Stockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,University of Exeter, UK; Georesilience Analytics, UK (author)

Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth system impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global “core” tipping elements and regional “impact” tipping elements and their temperature thresholds. Current global warming of ~1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges. Several tipping points may be triggered in the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to <2°C global warming, with many more likely at the 2 to 3°C of warming expected on current policy trajectories. This strengthens the evidence base for urgent action to mitigate climate change and to develop improved tipping point risk assessment, early warning capability, and adaptation strategies.

Staal, ArieStockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,Utrecht University, Netherlands(Swepub:su)arst6662 (author)
Abrams, Jesse F. (author)
Winkelmann, Ricarda (author)
Sakschewski, Boris (author)
Loriani, Sina (author)
Fetzer, IngoStockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre(Swepub:su)ifetz (author)
Cornell, Sarah E.Stockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre(Swepub:su)scorn (author)
Rockström, JohanStockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany(Swepub:su)jrock (author)
Lenton, Timothy M. (author)
Stockholms universitetStockholm Resilience Centre (creator_code:org_t)

In:Science: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)377:66110036-80751095-9203

By the author/editor: Armstrong McKay, ...; Staal, Arie; Abrams, Jesse F.; Winkelmann, Rica ...; Sakschewski, Bor ...; Loriani, Sina; show more...; Fetzer, Ingo; Cornell, Sarah E ...; Rockström, Johan; Lenton, Timothy ...; show less...

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