Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model

Wunderling, NicoStockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany; Princeton University, USA (author)

Current policies and actions make it very likely, at least temporarily, to overshoot the Paris climate targets of 1.5–<2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels. If this global warming range is exceeded, potential tipping elements such as the Greenland Ice Sheet and Amazon rainforest may be at increasing risk of crossing critical thresholds. This raises the question of how much this risk is amplified by increasing overshoot magnitude and duration. Here we investigate the danger for tipping under a range of temperature overshoot scenarios using a stylized network model of four interacting climate tipping elements. Our model analysis reveals that temporary overshoots can increase tipping risks by up to 72% compared with non-overshoot scenarios, even when the long-term equilibrium temperature stabilizes within the Paris range. Our results suggest that avoiding high-end climate risks is possible only for low-temperature overshoots and if long-term temperatures stabilize at or below today’s levels of global warming.

Winkelmann, Ricarda (author)
Rockström, JohanStockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany(Swepub:su)jrock (author)
Loriani, Sina (author)
Armstrong McKay, David I.Stockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,University of Exeter, UK; Georesilience Analytics, UK(Swepub:su)daar3019 (author)
Ritchie, Paul D. L. (author)
Sakschewski, Boris (author)
Donges, Jonathan F.Stockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany; Princeton University, USA(Swepub:su)jdong (author)
Stockholms universitetStockholm Resilience Centre (creator_code:org_t)

In:Nature Climate Change: Springer Science and Business Media LLC13:1, s. 75-821758-678X1758-6798

By the author/editor: Wunderling, Nico; Winkelmann, Rica ...; Rockström, Johan; Loriani, Sina; Armstrong McKay, ...; Ritchie, Paul D. ...; show more...; Sakschewski, Bor ...; Donges, Jonathan ...; show less...

About the subject

Kungliga biblioteket hanterar dina personuppgifter i enlighet med EU:s dataskyddsförordning (2018), GDPR. Läs mer om hur det funkar här.
Så här hanterar KB dina uppgifter vid användning av denna tjänst.