Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM) III : Scenario analysis

• An ensemble of 10 hydrological models was applied to the same set of land use change scenarios. There was general agreement about the direction of changes in the mean annual discharge and 90% discharge percentile predicted by the ensemble members, although a considerable range in the magnitude of predictions for the scenarios and catchments under consideration was obvious. Differences in the magnitude of the increase were attributed to the different mean annual actual evapotranspiration rates for each land use type. The ensemble of model runs was further analyzed with deterministic and probabilistic ensemble methods. The deterministic ensemble method based on a trimmed mean resulted in a single somewhat more reliable scenario prediction. The probabilistic reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method allowed a quantification of the model structure uncertainty in the scenario predictions. It was concluded that the use of a model ensemble has greatly increased our confidence in the reliability of the model predictions.

Ämnesord

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Model intercomparison

land use change

reliability ensemble averaging (rea)

ensemble modeling

regional climate-change

averaging rea method

multimodel ensembles

catchment models

water yield

vegetation changes

soil properties

uncertainty

simulations

scale

Publikations- och innehållstyp

ref (ämneskategori)

art (ämneskategori)