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Comparing reconstru...
Comparing reconstructed past variations and future projections of the Baltic sea ecosystem first results from multi model ensemble simulations
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- Meier, Markus (author)
- Stockholms universitet,Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU),SMHI, Sweden
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- Andersson, Helen C. (author)
- SMHI, Sweden
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- Arheimer, Berit (author)
- SMHI, Sweden
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- Blenckner, Thorsten (author)
- Stockholms universitet,Baltic Nest Institute,Stockholm University, Sweden
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- Chubarenko, Boris (author)
- Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia
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- Donnelly, Chantal (author)
- SMHI, Sweden
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- Eilola, Kari (author)
- SMHI, Sweden
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- Gustafsson, Bo G. (author)
- Stockholms universitet,Baltic Nest Institute,Stockholm University, Sweden
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- Hansson, Anders, 1978- (author)
- Linköpings universitet,Tema teknik och social förändring,Filosofiska fakulteten,Centrum för klimatpolitisk forskning
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- Havenhand, Jonathan N., 1959 (author)
- Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för biologi och miljövetenskap, Tjärnö marinbiologiska laboratorium,Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Tjärnö Marine Biological Laboratory
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- Hoglund, Anders (author)
- SMHI, Sweden
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- Kuznetsov, Ivan (author)
- SMHI, Sweden
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- MacKenzie, Brian R. (author)
- Technical University of Denmark, Denmark
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- Müller-Karulis, Barbel (author)
- Stockholms universitet,Baltic Nest Institute,Stockholm University
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- Neumann, Thomas (author)
- Leibniz-Institut fur Ostseeforschung, Germany
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- Niiranen, Susa (author)
- Stockholms universitet,Baltic Nest Institute,Stockholm University, Sweden
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- Piwowarczyk, Joanna (author)
- Polish Academy of Sciences, Poland
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- Raudsepp, Urmas (author)
- Tallinn University of Technology, Estonia
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- Reckermann, Marcus (author)
- International BALTEX Secretariat, Germany
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- Ruoho-Airola, Tuija (author)
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland
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- Savchuk, Oleg P. (author)
- Stockholms universitet,Baltic Nest Institute,Stockholm University, Sweden
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- Schenk, Frederik (author)
- Institute for Coastal Research, Germany
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- Schimanke, Semjon (author)
- SMHI, Sweden
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- Vali, Germo (author)
- SMHI, Sweden
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- Weslawski, Jan-Marcin (author)
- Polish Academy of Sciences, Poland
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- Zorita, Eduardo (author)
- Institute for Coastal Research, Germany
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2012-07-09
- 2012
- English.
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In: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 7:3, s. 034005-
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Abstract
Subject headings
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- Multi-model ensemble simulations for the marine biogeochemistry and food web of the Baltic Sea were performed for the period 1850-2098, and projected changes in the future climate were compared with the past climate environment. For the past period 1850-2006, atmospheric, hydrological and nutrient forcings were reconstructed, based on historical measurements. For the future period 1961-2098, scenario simulations were driven by regionalized global general circulation model (GCM) data and forced by various future greenhouse gas emission and air-and riverborne nutrient load scenarios (ranging from a pessimistic 'business-as-usual' to the most optimistic case). To estimate uncertainties, different models for the various parts of the Earth system were applied. Assuming the IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios A1B or A2, we found that water temperatures at the end of this century may be higher and salinities and oxygen concentrations may be lower than ever measured since 1850. There is also a tendency of increased eutrophication in the future, depending on the nutrient load scenario. Although cod biomass is mainly controlled by fishing mortality, climate change together with eutrophication may result in a biomass decline during the latter part of this century, even when combined with lower fishing pressure. Despite considerable shortcomings of state-of-the-art models, this study suggests that the future Baltic Sea ecosystem may unprecedentedly change compared to the past 150 yr. As stakeholders today pay only little attention to adaptation and mitigation strategies, more information is needed to raise public awareness of the possible impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems.
Subject headings
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences (hsv//eng)
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- Baltic Sea
- numerical modeling
- climate change
- eutrophication
- scenarios
- ensemble modeling
- marine biogeochemical cycles
- marine food web
- Baltic Sea Action Plan
- decision support system
- Baltic Sea
- numerical modeling
- climate change
- eutrophication
- scenarios
- ensemble modeling
- model
Publication and Content Type
- ref (subject category)
- art (subject category)
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- By the author/editor
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Meier, Markus
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Andersson, Helen ...
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Arheimer, Berit
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Blenckner, Thors ...
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Chubarenko, Bori ...
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Donnelly, Chanta ...
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show more...
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Eilola, Kari
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Gustafsson, Bo G ...
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Hansson, Anders, ...
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Havenhand, Jonat ...
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Hoglund, Anders
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Kuznetsov, Ivan
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MacKenzie, Brian ...
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Müller-Karulis, ...
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Neumann, Thomas
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Niiranen, Susa
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Piwowarczyk, Joa ...
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Raudsepp, Urmas
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Reckermann, Marc ...
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Ruoho-Airola, Tu ...
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Savchuk, Oleg P.
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Schenk, Frederik
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Schimanke, Semjo ...
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Vali, Germo
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Weslawski, Jan-M ...
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Zorita, Eduardo
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- About the subject
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- NATURAL SCIENCES
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NATURAL SCIENCES
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and Earth and Relate ...
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and Environmental Sc ...
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- NATURAL SCIENCES
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NATURAL SCIENCES
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and Earth and Relate ...
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and Meteorology and ...
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- NATURAL SCIENCES
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NATURAL SCIENCES
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and Earth and Relate ...
- Articles in the publication
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Environmental Re ...
- By the university
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Stockholm University
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University of Gothenburg
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Linköping University