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  • Niiranen, SusaStockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och botanik (författare)

Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web

  • Artikel/kapitelEngelska2013

Förlag, utgivningsår, omfång ...

  • 2013-08-23
  • Wiley,2013
  • printrdacarrier

Nummerbeteckningar

  • LIBRIS-ID:oai:DiVA.org:su-92833
  • https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-92833URI
  • https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12309DOI

Kompletterande språkuppgifter

  • Språk:engelska
  • Sammanfattning på:engelska

Ingår i deldatabas

Klassifikation

  • Ämneskategori:ref swepub-contenttype
  • Ämneskategori:art swepub-publicationtype

Anmärkningar

  • AuthorCount: 9;
  • Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large-scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed to persistent eutrophication, intensive fishing, and one of the world's fastest rates of warming in the last two decades of the 20th century, accelerated climate change including atmospheric warming and changes in precipitation is projected for this region during the 21st century. Here, we used a new multi-model approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient-climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By the end of the 21st century, for example, the combination of intensive cod fishing and high nutrient loads projected a strongly eutrophicated and sprat-dominated ecosystem, while low cod fishing in combination with low nutrient loads resulted in a cod-dominated ecosystem with eutrophication levels close to present. Also, non-linearities were observed in the sensitivity of different trophic groups to nutrient loads or fishing depending on the combination of the two. Finally, many climate variables and species biomasses were projected to levels unseen in the past. Hence, the risk for ecological surprises needs to be addressed, particularly when the results are discussed in the ecosystem-based management context.

Ämnesord och genrebeteckningar

Biuppslag (personer, institutioner, konferenser, titlar ...)

  • Yletyinen, JohannaStockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,University of Olso, Norway(Swepub:su)joyl1498 (författare)
  • Tomczak, Maciej T.Stockholms universitet,Baltic Nest Institute(Swepub:su)mtomc (författare)
  • Blenckner, ThorstenStockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre(Swepub:su)tblen (författare)
  • Hjerne, OlleStockholms universitet,Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och botanik(Swepub:su)hjern (författare)
  • MacKenzie, Brian R. (författare)
  • Müller-Karulis, BärbelStockholms universitet,Baltic Nest Institute(Swepub:su)bmull (författare)
  • Neumann, Thomas (författare)
  • Meier, H. E. MarkusStockholms universitet,Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU),Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sweden(Swepub:su)mmeie (författare)
  • Stockholms universitetStockholm Resilience Centre (creator_code:org_t)

Sammanhörande titlar

  • Ingår i:Global Change Biology: Wiley19:11, s. 3327-33421354-10131365-2486

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