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  • Schuur, E. A. G. (author)

Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change

  • Article/chapterEnglish2013

Publisher, publication year, extent ...

  • 2013-03-26
  • Springer Science and Business Media LLC,2013
  • printrdacarrier

Numbers

  • LIBRIS-ID:oai:DiVA.org:su-93190
  • https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-93190URI
  • https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7DOI
  • https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/4043111URI

Supplementary language notes

  • Language:English
  • Summary in:English

Part of subdatabase

Classification

  • Subject category:ref swepub-contenttype
  • Subject category:art swepub-publicationtype

Notes

  • AuthorCount:42;
  • Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19-45 Pg C by 2040, 162-288 Pg C by 2100, and 381-616 Pg C by 2300 in CO2 equivalent using 100-year CH4 global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH4 GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH4 even though CH4 was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing.

Subject headings and genre

Added entries (persons, corporate bodies, meetings, titles ...)

  • Abbott, B. W. (author)
  • Bowden, W. B. (author)
  • Brovkin, V. (author)
  • Camill, P. (author)
  • Canadell, J. G. (author)
  • Chanton, J. P. (author)
  • Chapin, F. S. , I I I (author)
  • Christensen, TorbenLund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,Faculty of Science(Swepub:lu)ekol-tch (author)
  • Ciais, P. (author)
  • Crosby, B. T. (author)
  • Czimczik, C. I. (author)
  • Grosse, G. (author)
  • Harden, J. (author)
  • Hayes, D. J. (author)
  • Hugelius, GustafStockholms universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK)(Swepub:su)chuge (author)
  • Jastrow, J. D. (author)
  • Jones, J. B. (author)
  • Kleinen, T. (author)
  • Koven, C. D. (author)
  • Krinner, G. (author)
  • Kuhry, PeterStockholms universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK)(Swepub:su)pkuhr (author)
  • Lawrence, D. M. (author)
  • McGuire, A. D. (author)
  • Natali, S. M. (author)
  • O'Donnell, J. A. (author)
  • Ping, C. L. (author)
  • Riley, W. J. (author)
  • Rinke, A. (author)
  • Romanovsky, V. E. (author)
  • Sannel, A. Britta K.Stockholms universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK)(Swepub:su)bsann (author)
  • Schaedel, C. (author)
  • Schaefer, K. (author)
  • Sky, J. (author)
  • Subin, Z. M. (author)
  • Tarnocai, C. (author)
  • Turetsky, M. R. (author)
  • Waldrop, M. P. (author)
  • Anthony, K. M. Walter (author)
  • Wickland, K. P. (author)
  • Wilson, C. J. (author)
  • Zimov, S. A. (author)
  • Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskapNaturvetenskapliga fakulteten (creator_code:org_t)

Related titles

  • In:Climatic Change: Springer Science and Business Media LLC119:2, s. 359-3740165-00091573-1480

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