Environmental Suitability of Vibrio Infections in a Warming Climate: An Early Warning System

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Semenza, Jan C. (author)

Environmental Suitability of Vibrio Infections in a Warming Climate : An Early Warning System

Article/chapterEnglish2017

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National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS),2017
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LIBRIS-ID:oai:DiVA.org:umu-141822
https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-141822URI
https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2198DOI

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Language:English
Summary in:English

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SwePubSwePub

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Subject category:ref swepub-contenttype
Subject category:art swepub-publicationtype

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BACKGROUND: Some Vibrio spp. are pathogenic and ubiquitous in marine waters with low to moderate salinity and thrive with elevated sea surface temperature (SST). OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to monitor and project the suitability of marine conditions for Vibrio infections under climate change scenarios. METHODS: The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) developed a platform (the ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer) to monitor the environmental suitability of coastal waters for Vibrio spp. using remotely sensed SST and salinity. A case-crossover study of Swedish cases was conducted to ascertain the relationship between SST and Vibrio infection through a conditional logistic regression. Climate change projections for Vibrio infections were developed for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. RESULTS: The ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer detected environmentally suitable areas for Vibrio spp. in the Baltic Sea in July 2014 that were accompanied by a spike in cases and one death in Sweden. The estimated exposure response relationship for Vibrio infections at a threshold of 16 degrees C revealed a relative risk (RR) = 1.14 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.27; p=0.024) for a lag of 2 wk; the estimated risk increased successively beyond this SST threshold. Climate change projections for SST under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate a marked upward trend during the summer months and an increase in the relative risk of these infections in the coming decades. CONCLUSIONS: This platform can serve as an early warning system as the risk of further Vibrio infections increases in the 21st ritui due to climate change.

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Trinanes, Joaquin (author)
Lohr, WolfgangUmeå universitet,Epidemiologi och global hälsa,Umeå Centre for Global Health Research(Swepub:umu)wolo0003 (author)
Sudre, Bertrand (author)
Löfdahl, Margareta (author)
Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime (author)
Nichols, Gordon L. (author)
Rocklöv, JoacimUmeå universitet,Epidemiologi och global hälsa,Umeå Centre for Global Health Research(Swepub:umu)joro0003 (author)
Umeå universitetEpidemiologi och global hälsa (creator_code:org_t)

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In:Journal of Environmental Health Perspectives: National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS)125:100091-67651552-9924

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MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES: MEDICAL AND HEAL ...; and Health Sciences; and Public Health Gl ...

MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES: MEDICAL AND HEAL ...; and Basic Medicine; and Pharmacology and ...

Articles in the publication: Journal of Envir ...

By the university: Umeå University

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