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Projections of temp...
Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios
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- Gasparrini, Antonio (author)
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
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- Guo, Yuming (author)
- Monash University,University of Queensland
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- Sera, Francesco (author)
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
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- Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria (author)
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
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- Huber, Veronika (author)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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- Tong, Shilu (author)
- Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Queensland University of Technology
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- de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline (author)
- University of São Paulo
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- Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario (author)
- University of São Paulo
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- Lavigne, Eric (author)
- University of Ottawa
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- Matus Correa, Patricia (author)
- Universidad de los Andes, Chile
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- Valdes Ortega, Nicolas (author)
- Universidad de los Andes, Chile
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- Kan, Haidong (author)
- Fudan University
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- Osorio, Samuel (author)
- University of São Paulo
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- Kyselý, Jan (author)
- Czech University of Life Sciences Prague,University of Oulu,Oulu University Hospital
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Urban, Aleš (author)
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Jaakkola, Jouni J. K. (author)
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- Ryti, Niilo R. I. (author)
- Oulu University Hospital,University of Oulu
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- Pascal, Mathilde (author)
- French National Public Health Agency
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- Goodman, Patrick G. (author)
- Dublin Institute of Technology
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- Zeka, Ariana (author)
- Brunel University London
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Michelozzi, Paola (author)
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Scortichini, Matteo (author)
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- Hashizume, Masahiro (author)
- Nagasaki University
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- Honda, Yasushi (author)
- University of Tsukuba
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- Hurtado-Diaz, Magali (author)
- National Institute of Public Health, Mexico
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- Cesar Cruz, Julio (author)
- National Institute of Public Health, Mexico
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- Seposo, Xerxes (author)
- Kyoto University
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- Kim, Ho (author)
- Seoul National University
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- Tobias, Aurelio (author)
- CSIC Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA)
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- Iñiguez, Carmen (author)
- University of Valencia
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- Forsberg, Bertil (author)
- Umeå University,Umeå universitet,Yrkes- och miljömedicin
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- Oudin Åström, Daniel (author)
- Umeå University,Lund University,Lunds universitet,Umeå universitet,Yrkes- och miljömedicin,Allmänmedicin, kardiovaskulär epidemiologi och levnadsvanor,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Family Medicine, Cardiovascular Epidemiology and Lifestyle,Lund University Research Groups
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- Ragettli, Martina S. (author)
- University of Basel,Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH)
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- Guo, Yue Leon (author)
- National Taiwan University
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- Wu, Chang-Fu (author)
- National Taiwan University
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- Zanobetti, Antonella (author)
- Harvard University
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- Schwartz, Joel (author)
- Harvard University
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- Bell, Michelle L. (author)
- Yale University
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- Dang, Tran Ngoc (author)
- Duy Tan University,Ho Chi Minh City Medicine and Pharmacy University
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- Van, Dung Do (author)
- Ho Chi Minh City Medicine and Pharmacy University
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- Heaviside, Clare (author)
- Public Health England,London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
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- Vardoulakis, Sotiris (author)
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine,Institute of Occupational Medicine (IOM), Edinburgh
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- Hajat, Shakoor (author)
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
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- Haines, Andy (author)
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
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- Armstrong, Ben (author)
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2017
- 2017
- English.
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In: The Lancet Planetary Health. - 2542-5196. ; 1:9, s. e360-e367
- Related links:
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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https://umu.diva-por... (primary) (Raw object)
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http://dx.doi.org/10... (free)
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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https://lup.lub.lu.s...
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Abstract
Subject headings
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- Background: Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates.Methods: We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature-mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990-2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes.Findings: Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090-99 compared with 2010-19 ranging from -1·2% (empirical 95% CI -3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to -0·1% (-2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat-related impacts and extremely large net increases, with the net change at the end of the century ranging from 3·0% (-3·0 to 9·3) in Central America to 12·7% (-4·7 to 28·1) in southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario. Most of the health effects directly due to temperature increase could be avoided under scenarios involving mitigation strategies to limit emissions and further warming of the planet.Interpretation: This study shows the negative health impacts of climate change that, under high-emission scenarios, would disproportionately affect warmer and poorer regions of the world. Comparison with lower emission scenarios emphasises the importance of mitigation policies for limiting global warming and reducing the associated health risks.
Subject headings
- MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP -- Hälsovetenskap -- Arbetsmedicin och miljömedicin (hsv//swe)
- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES -- Health Sciences -- Occupational Health and Environmental Health (hsv//eng)
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Klimatforskning (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Climate Research (hsv//eng)
- MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP -- Hälsovetenskap -- Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi (hsv//swe)
- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES -- Health Sciences -- Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology (hsv//eng)
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- art (subject category)
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Gasparrini, Anto ...
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Guo, Yuming
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Sera, Francesco
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Vicedo-Cabrera, ...
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Huber, Veronika
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Tong, Shilu
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de Sousa Zanotti ...
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Nascimento Saldi ...
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Lavigne, Eric
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Matus Correa, Pa ...
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Valdes Ortega, N ...
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Kan, Haidong
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Osorio, Samuel
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Kyselý, Jan
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Urban, Aleš
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Jaakkola, Jouni ...
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Ryti, Niilo R. I ...
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Pascal, Mathilde
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Goodman, Patrick ...
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Zeka, Ariana
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Michelozzi, Paol ...
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Scortichini, Mat ...
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Hashizume, Masah ...
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Honda, Yasushi
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Hurtado-Diaz, Ma ...
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Cesar Cruz, Juli ...
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Seposo, Xerxes
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Kim, Ho
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Tobias, Aurelio
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Iñiguez, Carmen
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Forsberg, Bertil
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Oudin Åström, Da ...
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Ragettli, Martin ...
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Guo, Yue Leon
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Wu, Chang-Fu
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Zanobetti, Anton ...
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Schwartz, Joel
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Bell, Michelle L ...
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Dang, Tran Ngoc
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Van, Dung Do
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Heaviside, Clare
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Vardoulakis, Sot ...
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Hajat, Shakoor
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Haines, Andy
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Armstrong, Ben
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- About the subject
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- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES
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MEDICAL AND HEAL ...
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and Health Sciences
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and Occupational Hea ...
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- NATURAL SCIENCES
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NATURAL SCIENCES
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and Earth and Relate ...
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and Climate Research
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- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES
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MEDICAL AND HEAL ...
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and Health Sciences
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and Public Health Gl ...
- Articles in the publication
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The Lancet Plane ...
- By the university
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Umeå University
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Lund University