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Modelling an optimu...
Modelling an optimum vaccination strategy against ZIKA virus for outbreak use
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- Massad, Eduardo (författare)
- School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo and LIM01-HCFMUSP, Sao Paulo, Brazil; School of Applied Mathematics, FundaçãoGetúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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- Bezerra Coutinhol, Francisco Antonio (författare)
- School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo and LIM01-HCFMUSP, Sao Paulo, Brazil
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- Wilder-Smith, Annelies (författare)
- Umeå universitet,Institutionen för epidemiologi och global hälsa,Department Public Health and Clinical, Germany; Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Germany; Department of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK
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(creator_code:org_t)
- Cambridge University Press, 2019
- 2019
- Engelska.
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Ingår i: Epidemiology and Infection. - : Cambridge University Press. - 0950-2688 .- 1469-4409. ; 147
- Relaterad länk:
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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https://umu.diva-por... (primary) (Raw object)
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Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- We present a model to optimise a vaccination campaign aiming to prevent or to curb a Zika virus outbreak. We show that the optimum vaccination strategy to reduce the number of cases by a mass vaccination campaign should start when the Aedes mosquitoes' density reaches the threshold of 1.5 mosquitoes per humans, the moment the reproduction number crosses one. The maximum time it is advisable to wait for the introduction of a vaccination campaign is when the first ZIKV case is identified, although this would not be as effective to minimise the number of infections as when the mosquitoes' density crosses the critical threshold. This suboptimum strategy, however, would still curb the outbreak. In both cases, the catch up strategy should aim to vaccinate at least 25% of the target population during a concentrated effort of 1 month immediately after identifying the threshold. This is the time taken to accumulate the herd immunity threshold of 56.5%. These calculations were done based on theoretical assumptions that vaccine implementation would be feasible within a very short time frame.
Ämnesord
- MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP -- Klinisk medicin -- Infektionsmedicin (hsv//swe)
- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES -- Clinical Medicine -- Infectious Medicine (hsv//eng)
Nyckelord
- Control strategies
- mathematical models
- vaccines
- Zika virus
Publikations- och innehållstyp
- ref (ämneskategori)
- art (ämneskategori)
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