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A Method for Estima...
A Method for Estimating the Number of Infections From the Reported Number of Deaths
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- Brännström, Åke, 1975- (författare)
- Umeå universitet,Institutionen för matematik och matematisk statistik,Advancing Systems Analysis Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
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- Sjödin, Henrik (författare)
- Umeå universitet,Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa
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- Rocklöv, Joacim, Professor, 1979- (författare)
- Umeå universitet,Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2022-01-20
- 2022
- Engelska.
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Public Health. - : Frontiers Media S.A.. - 2296-2565. ; 9
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Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- At the outset of an epidemic, available case data typically underestimate the total number of infections due to insufficient testing, potentially hampering public responses. Here, we present a method for statistically estimating the true number of cases with confidence intervals from the reported number of deaths and estimates of the infection fatality ratio; assuming that the time from infection to death follows a known distribution. While the method is applicable to any epidemic with a significant mortality rate, we exemplify the method by applying it to COVID-19. Our findings indicate that the number of unreported COVID-19 infections in March 2020 was likely to be at least one order of magnitude higher than the reported cases, with the degree of underestimation among the countries considered being particularly high in the United Kingdom.
Ämnesord
- MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP -- Hälsovetenskap -- Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi (hsv//swe)
- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES -- Health Sciences -- Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology (hsv//eng)
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Matematik -- Sannolikhetsteori och statistik (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Mathematics -- Probability Theory and Statistics (hsv//eng)
Nyckelord
- COVID-19
- estimating
- infectives
- nowcasting
- surveillance
Publikations- och innehållstyp
- ref (ämneskategori)
- art (ämneskategori)
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